NBA Swing: Is this the Most Unpredictable MVP Race in Years?

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With the NBA in its final five weeks of the 2023-24 season, awards are on the mind. While many of the awards are likely to have predictable winners, the biggest award of the season is the most unpredictable this year. For much of the season, it looked like Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid would win the award for the second year in a row. Averaging 35.7 PPG, 11.3 RPG, and 5.7 APG, Embiid dominated every game he played in. After suffering a meniscus injury in early February, Embiid fell out of MVP contention due to the league’s new 65-games played rule for awards and All-NBA. With Embiid out, the MVP race may very well be wide open. Who will win the award?

Nikola Jokic

Of those in MVP award contention, most sports betting outlets have Denver Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic with the best odds to win the award. This season, the two-time MVP continues to show why he’s one of, if not the best player in the NBA. In 60 games played so far this season, Joker is averaging 25.9 PPG, 12.3 RPG, and 9.2 APG (top five in both rebounds and assists). Leading his team with nearly a triple-double every night, Jokic has led his team to a 44-20 record, third in the West. While Jokic’s play has been worthy of winning the award for the last four seasons, like last season, voter fatigue is the biggest obstacle in his way. Having finished winning the award or as runner-up the last three seasons, are the voters tired of seeing Jokic win the award?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Right behind Jokic in odds with most sports betting outlets is Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. After a strong 2022-23 season, SGA has quickly become a household name to NBA fans and an MVP contender this season. In 63 games so far, SGA has averaged 31.2 PPG (2nd highest in the league), 5.6 RPG, and 6.5 APG while shooting a career-high 54.6 % from the field. SGA has been the key to the Thunder already passing their record of 40-42 last season. With OKC on pace for over 50 wins, SGA has everything possible to win his first MVP award. Of those in award contention, SGA may be the biggest threat to Nikola Jokic in the award race.

Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic has had another amazing season showing why he should win MVP. Only 25 years old and in his sixth season, Luka has gotten better every single season. In the 56 games he’s played this season, Doncic has averaged 34.7 PPG (first in the league and a career-high), 9.0 RPG, and 9.8 APG while shooting a career-high from both the field and beyond the arc. Last season, Luka finished eighth in MVP voting and fifth in both 2021 and 2022. While Doncic has the stats to win the award, the biggest obstacle to him winning the award is the record of the Dallas Mavericks. Currently 36-28, Dallas sits in the eighth seed and would be in the Play-In Tournament if the season ended today. The lowest-seeded player to win MVP was Russell Westbrook during the 2016-17 season. Westbrook’s stats and the narrative of the season played a role in Westbrook winning the award. While Doncic has the stats, there is no narrative about having another star player besides him in Kyrie Irving.

Jayson Tatum

Maybe the most overlooked player in the MVP conversation, Jayson Tatum is the best player on the best team in the league. Tatum has averaged 26.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 4.9 APG in 58 games, Tatum has played the biggest role in the Celtics’ 49-14 record. As of March 6th, the Celtics have seven more wins than the second-seeded Milwaukee Bucks. The biggest obstacle in Tatum’s way is the same thing that has been in his way the last few seasons; the Celtics are a stacked team. Since coming into the league, Tatum has seen plenty of success in the regular season and multiple deep runs in the playoffs. Some may argue that due to that success, Tatum has not stood out on his team and in the MVP conversation.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Another two-time MVP in contention to win the award again, Giannis Antetokounmpo has had another MVP-caliber season. While Giannis has taken the smallest step back (mainly due to the addition of Damian Lillard) averaging 30.8 PPG (third highest in the league), 11.2 RPG, and 6.4 APG, he is still the most important player on the Bucks. Even with the team struggling early on and changing coaches midway through the season, Giannis has been one of the most dominant players in the league. Like Doncic and Tatum, Giannis has similar obstacles in the way of winning his third MVP award. Playing on another team with another superstar next to him, some have argued that Giannis does not have the same workload that other contenders like Jokic and SGA. With the Bucks having seven more losses than the first-seed Bucks, the win-loss-record is another small obstacle in the way of Antetokounmpo compared to a player like Jayson Tatum.

Why Next Year Will Be Different

The biggest issue with this season’s MVP race is the 65 games played minimum rules agreed upon by the league and NBAPA. The 65 games played minimum rule has ruled out players like Joel Embiid for MVP and puts a lot on the line for players like Tyrese Haliburton who may fall short of that 65 games played if injuries persist. If the rule was not implemented, Joel Embiid would more than likely win the 2023-24 MVP award, even though he’s played just 34 games (and may play a handful more if he returns before the end of the season). Many in the basketball world ranging from players to media personalities have complained about the games played minimum. The expectation from most is that the number of games played for award contention will likely decrease next season, but that’s something that will not be discussed until the offseason.