NBA Swing: Teams Who Could the Hurt the Most by First-Round Exits?

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With the 2024 playoffs in full swing, most teams are deep into their first-round series, playing two or three games at the time of this writing. Several teams are down 2-0 or 3-0 and their playoff runs may be coming to an end sooner rather than later. Several of those teams are superstar-loaded, bringing up the question of what will happen if those teams face early playoff exits. With several big-name free agents and disgruntled stars on these teams, will an early playoff exit force big changes?

Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns are in a tricky situation as they are currently down 0-2 against the third-seed Minnesota Timberwolves. On Friday night, Phoenix will play Minnesota in Phoenix in a do-or-die game 3. Having Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal, the Suns are a front-heavy team. While they have some important role players including Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic, the back half of the team has not been able to contribute as much. Over the next handful of years, Phoenix has little to no trade capital, cashing in all their trade chips for Durant and Beal. Heading into the second year of his four-year, $198 million extension he signed with Brooklyn in 2021, Durant is not going anywhere unless he requests a trade. Bradley Beal cannot go anywhere as he has a no-trade clause in his contract. Booker, entering the first year of his four-year, $221 million contract, has shown no signs of wanting to leave Phoenix. For Phoenix, a first-round exit will force some change within the organization, especially if they want to keep Booker and Durant happy and competing for a championship.

Los Angeles Lakers

Currently down 0-3 against the defending champion Denver Nuggets, the end could be near for Los Angeles. For the Lakers, it is well-known what could be on the line this offseason. The biggest potential free agent this summer, LeBron James could decline his $51.4 million player option for next season, looking to play with his son, Bronny, who has been linked to several teams ahead of the 2024 draft. There have been rumors of the Lakers potentially pursuing Bronny as well as several superstars this offseason in hopes of keeping the team contending around LeBron. If LeBron chooses to leave the Lakers this offseason, the Lakers could end up in basketball purgatory over the next handful of seasons. In addition to LeBron, many within the basketball are expecting Lakers head coach Darvin Ham to be fired if the team is eliminated in the first round. Reports have expressed tension between Ham and the locker room at times, although no player has been specifically named.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Going back to last year’s playoffs, the talk around the Cleveland Cavaliers has been focused on superstars. Donovan Mitchell. When the Cavs were eliminated in the first round last season, the rumors surrounding Mitchell wanting to leave only grew louder. This season, more reports and rumors came out suggesting Mitchell would only plan to stay if the Cavs made a deep playoff run. If the Cavs were to lose, Mitchell would likely request a trade as he has one season left on his contract before a 2025-26 player option. After an embarrassing 38-point loss against the Magic, it’s possible doubt may start to creep in for the team. If they can make it past Orlando, they will face the first-seed Boston Celtics or eight-seed Miami Heat, who could both take out the Cavs and set the Mitchell rumors to an all-time high.

Los Angeles Clippers

Tied 1-1 with the Dallas Mavericks, there is a lot on the line for the Los Angeles Clippers ahead of their move to the Intuit Dome for the 2024-25 season. While Kawhi Leonard signed an extension earlier in the season, the Clippers have two big-name free agents in Paul George and James Harden. Harden will become an unrestricted free agent this summer and PG has not opted into his player option for the 2024-25 season, with reports saying he and the Clippers were far apart on a new contract. Clippers owner Steve Ballmer has more than enough money to pay for the team’s superstars, but a first-round exit may hamper their belief in Harden and PG’s belief in the Clippers. Of the two players, PG is the player with the higher possibility of leaving. Having been linked to several teams including the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks, joining a contender in the Eastern Conference may be in PG’s best interest if the Clippers lose in the first round.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Giannis Antetokounmpo Damian Lillard era of the Bucks is off to a rocky start. The team struggled early in the 2023-24 season, firing first-year head coach Adrian Griffin after a 30-13 start, and replacing him with veteran coach Doc Rivers. While the team had looked better overall, the team would go 17-19 in the games he coached. Many around the league have argued the duo has not worked well together, but the team would finish as the third seed in the East with a 49-33 record. Heading into the playoffs, the team has missed Giannis Antetokounmpo with a calf injury. Damian Lillard has had a great start to the playoffs, but the series is tied 1-1 heading to Indianapolis. With the timetable for Giannis’ return unknown, Milwaukee could be heading into two dangerous games. If Giannis doesn’t return in the first round, there is a much higher chance the Pacers could upset them. After a first-round exit last year, there was a lot of speculation regarding Giannis’ future with the team. While he signed a three-year, $186 million extension earlier this season, Giannis has expressed winning being the priority. In the scenario the Bucks are eliminated in the first round in back-to-back years, some changes can be expected within the Bucks organization. It’s unlikely that Giannis would request a trade a year after signing his extension, but he could pressure the organization to make another big offseason mode to keep the Bucks in contention.