NBA Swing: End-of-Season Award Predictions

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The 2023-24 NBA season is coming to a close with teams playing their final games this week. The playoffs start a week from Saturday, and awards season is around the corner as well. It is expected that NBA awards will start being announced near the end of the month and in early May. As most teams have played around 79-80 games at the time of this writing, NBA award winners can be predicted after an eventful 2023-24 season.

Sixth Man of the Year: Malik Monk

Runner-Up: Naz Reid

Of those coming off the bench, there has been no player making a significant impact other more than Malik Monk. After a season with the Lakers, Monk has been a key role player for the Kings over the last two seasons. This season, Monk is not only having his best year with the Kings, but his best career year overall. Playing 72 games this season (all off the bench), Monk has averaged a career-high 15.4 points and 5.1 assists in addition to 2.9 rebounds per game in just 26 minutes per game. While the Kings have taken a small step back due to the competition in the West, they owe just as much credit to Monk as they do to their superstars.

Of those in the race, the closet threat to Monk winning the award would be Minnesota Timberwolves big man Naz Reid. Like Monk, Reid is having a career year in his fifth season with the Wolves. In 79 games (65 off the bench), Reid has put up a career-high 13.4 points and 5.3 rebounds. With Karl-Anthony Towns missing a small chunk of games, Reid has spent some time in the starting lineup, but not enough to disqualify him from award contention.

Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault

Runner-Up: Chris Finch

While there have been many surprises in the West this season, there has been no bigger surprise than the Oklahoma City Thunder. After several years near the bottom of the West post-Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are on the rise. Last season, the team finished 40-42, losing in the Play-In Tournament to the Minnesota Timberwolves. This season, the Thunder have jumped to the top of the West. Currently at 56-25 and now in a three-way tie with the Nuggets and Timberwolves in the West. The Thunder have been in the top three most of the season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has looked like an NBA MVP, Chet Holmgren has been one of the best rookies in the league, and Jalen Williams has taken a big leap in his second season. Leading the team is Mark Daigneault. Daigneault has gotten the best out of his players, leading the team to a better record every one of the four seasons he has been head coach. One of the youngest coaches in the league, Daigneault will only continue to grow as an NBA coach in the league.

Another coach who deserves his flowers this season is Chris Finch from the Minnesota Timberwolves. Like OKC, Minnesota has been on the rise in recent years. With Anthony Edwards taking that step into superstardom and the duo of Karl Anthony-Towns and Rudy Gobert being one of best frontcourts in the league, they have jumped to the top of the West as well. Currently 56-25, the Wolves have been led by Finch, who may be one of those most overlooked coaches in the NBA

Clutch Player of the Year: Stephen Curry

Runner-Up: DeMar DeRozan

In the clutch, no player has been more impactful than Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry. Via covers, Curry has played in 41 clutch games which leads the league. He is shooting over 50% from the field, over 45% from beyond the arc, and tied for the most clutch points per game (4.5), Curry is one of the most dependable NBA players in the clutch. Without Curry, the Warriors would likely have a much worse record than they currently have.

While the quality of play has dropped off in recent weeks, DeMar DeRozan of the Chicago Bulls has been another great player in the clutch. Playing in over 35 clutch games this season, the Bulls have led the NBA in clutch minutes with over 160 minutes. Currently tied with Curry for most clutch points per game, DeMar has proven to be one of the best clutch players in the NBA, but the Bulls have unfortunately faltered in the clutch in their last handful of clutch games.

Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert

Runner-Up: Victor Wembanyama

On the defensive end, there has been no bigger force than Minnesota Timberwolves big man Rudy Gobert. Gobert has been a one-man defensive machine leading the Wolves to the best defense in the league. Individually, Gobert has the best defensive rating in the league with a 104.3 defensive rating. He is second in the league in rebounds per game with 12.9 (9.2 defensive rebounds), along with 2.1 blocks and 0.7 steals per game. Without Rudy Gobert on the court, it is a clear fact the Wolves are worse defensively, posting a 111.5 defensive rating compared to 108.7 with him. For Gobert, this will more than likely be the fourth time he wins the award, which will tie him with Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo for the most DPOY awards.

Making a late-season push for the award is Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama has been other worldly in his rookie season, making it clear he will be a defensive force for years to come. In 70 games this season, Wemby has averaged 10.6 rebounds (8.3 defensive), 1.2 steals and a league best 3.6 blocks per game. Individually, Wembanyama has 106.0 defensive rating, one of the best in the league. When Wemby plays, the Spurs have a defensive rating of 116.7 and are much worse with a 121.8 defensive rating without him this season. While he will more than likely finish as runner-up this season, Wemby will win a handful of DPOY awards over his NBA career.

Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama

Runner-Up: Chet Holmgren

He may not win DPOY, but Wemby will win Rookie of the Year. In the two-man race for the award, Wemby has been the number one choice for the award most of the season. In his 70 games this season, Wemby has put up 21.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game, along with his monster defensive performances. He has already lived up to the hype with the unlimited potential to grow so early in his career. If the right team can be put around Wembanyama, there is no doubt he and his team will see great success for years to come.

If this was ANY other season, the Rookie of the Year would be Chet Holmgren. While some have argued that Holmgren is not a rookie having sat on OKC’s bench for the 2022-23 season, he did not play any NBA games until this season. In 80 games this season, Holmgren has been the perfect piece for the Thunder. Putting up 16.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.9 blocks per game, Holmgren matches perfectly paired alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. The future is very bright for Holmgren, with OKC looking like a contender for years to come.

Most Improved: Tyrese Maxey

Runner-Up: Coby White

Another two-man race, the Most Improved award belongs to Tyrese Maxey. While the qualifications for MIP have become controversial in recent years, Maxey has followed the path of many recent winners. Jumping from 20.3 PPG to 25.9 PPG, Maxey has taken the next step following the James Harden trade earlier this season. He has jumped from the number three option to the perfect number two option to pair alongside Joel Embiid. Averaging career-highs across the board, Maxey has shown he has what it takes to not only be a star in the league, but a key piece of a championship contender.

If the qualifications for MIP were similar to around a decade ago, Bulls guard Coby White makes a very compelling case to win the award. After a couple down years, White has become the starting guard for the Bulls with the potential to be an All-Star one day. After starting only two of his 75 games last season, White has started 75 of the 76 games he’s played so far this season. Jumping from 9.7 PPG to 19.0 PPG, White has taken a massive leap, especially with the absence of backcourt teammate Zach Lavine for most of the season. With his play taking a small dip due to late season injury, he will finish as runner-up. Regardless of the result, White has proven to be a pivotal piece for the Bulls’ future, with the potential for more growth in the future.

MVP: Nikola Jokic

Runners-Up: Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

In what may be one of the most controversial MVP races in recent memory, the award race would look much different without the 65 games played minimum rule. If the rule did not exist, Sixers superstar Joel Embiid would likely repeat as MVP. With Embiid ruled out after missing over half the season, the race to MVP has come to down to a few familiar faces. Most likely to win the award will be Nuggets big man and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic has continued is reign of dominance in the league, averaging 26.6 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game while being one of the most efficient players in the game. He has led the Nuggets to the best record in the Western Conference, currently sitting at 56-24, with the potential to win a franchise record 57+ wins. If Jokic wins the award, he will join a list of legendary Centers who have won the award three or more times, a list including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Moses Malone.

One of the likely runners-up for the MVP award will be Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. The 25-year-old has only gotten better in his sixth season. In 70 games played so far, Doncic has averaged a league-high 33.9 points per game, along with 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game while also shooting a career-high from the free throw line and beyond the arc. Luka has been the driving force behind the Mavericks late into the playoffs, just surpassing 50 wins on the season. If he doesn’t win the award this season, Luka will more than likely win a few MVPs over the course of his career.

Another likely runner-up who has made a strong case to win his first MVP award is OKC guard Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. SGA has evolved into a young superstar in his sixth season in the league. Putting up 30.4 points (third best), 5.6 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game, SGA has been the key for OKC’s success this season. SGA has led the Thunder to 55 wins at the time of this writing. If SGA can lead the Thunder past 55 wins, it will be their best finish since the 2015-16 season. With OKC just now jumping into championship contention, expect SGA to be a key member of the MVP award race for years to come.