Nass' Trip Around the Association Vol. 3, Page Fourteen

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Can Dallas climb to title contention?

“Just be ready to be hunted. A lot of teams are coming after us [Dallas Mavericks], you kind of see the media calling us legitimate contenders. I don’t think it’s our time right now to be listening to all that noise,” superstar guard Kyrie Irving told the media following a 133-111 road loss at the hand of the Indiana Pacers back on February 25th. That put a stop to a season-long seven-game win streak that now feels ages ago. Since the streak which included impressive wins over the Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns, the Mavericks have backpedaled to one of the NBA’s worst defenses since. “We just have to focus on one game at a time and get ready for what’s ahead of us.”

On the second of their brief five-game Eastern Conference road trip, the Mavericks faced off against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Mavericks had led almost the entire game up until the fourth quarter and an Irving finger roll layup lifted the Mavericks margin to ten with 3:57 left in the contest. Cavs’ wing Max Strus had checked into the game just a minute before the Irving made field goal and was the difference maker in the closing moments. Late in the game with under a minute left, after a scramble play occurred off of a Mavericks’ attempted in-bounds play to Luka Doncic, Doncic drove down the middle of the paint on a quick 3 on 3 break. As Doncic navigated closer to the restricted area, he inevitably drew the attention of Cavs’ big man Jarrett Allen and Doncic wisely dumped off a bounce pass to Mavs’ newly acquired forward PJ Washington who was waiting in the dunker’s spot along the baseline. Washington rose up off two feet drawing some questionable contact and laid the ball in to put the Mavericks up 119-118 with two seconds left. Strus then grabbed the ball and inbounded it quickly to big man Evan Mobley. Irving, who was located on the other side of the inbounds seemed to be the only Dallas player who stayed even-keeled and unphased about the potential game-winner and didn’t retreat in coverage but instead stayed up to pressure the Cavs’ counter. When Mobley caught the in-bounds 20 feet away, he immediately tossed it back to a driving Strus, who took one dribble then netted an uncontested 59-foot heave from just before half-court as the buzzer sounded.

The very next night the Mavericks visited the Toronto Raptors on the back end of their back-to-back. Doncic and Irving put on once again a masterclass performance offensively, combining for 59 points in a high-scoring affair en route to a victory to get back into the winning column. A couple of nights later the Mavericks fell short to arguably the best team in the Association the Boston Celtics 138-114 to close out their brief road stint. The Mavs then returned home and hosted the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers this past Sunday afternoon and also came up short 120-116 in an underwhelming defensive team effort. “We’re going to be okay, that’s for everybody that’s watching at home. We’re going to be okay. We gotta trust that we’ll be able to put the work in necessary to get us these wins .. No more excuses. We got 20-something games left. We know the positioning we’re in,” Irving reiterated to the media after the home loss to the 76ers. After a consecutive loss to the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night the Mavericks put an end to their mini skid by edging the Miami Heat last night in a gutsy 114-108 win at home. Exum had some big moments late especially during some of the two-man possessions playing off of the Miami Heat trap. The Heat continually trapped Doncic in crunch time in order to force someone else to make a play and Exum executed again, and again. Exum’s experience as a floor general and patience were on display, in particular two huge plays with three minutes left as the roller. Exum kept it simple, taking what the defense was giving him. On one possession after setting a slip screen for Doncic, Exum received the pass off of the roll from Doncic and hit an uncontested three-pointer from the top of the key to take a 103-101 lead with 3:15 left in the game. A couple possessions later on a similar action, this time Exum diving towards the free throw line, after rolling and receiving the entry from Doncic, Exum first looked for what options he had in the corner and then realized the surplus of space in front of him as the defense basically left him open in paint and Exum wisely took a turnaround jumper to push the Mavs’ lead to seven with 1:07 left. “He [Dante Exum] was great. [It was an] amazing performance, especially down the stretch. He was out for a lot of games. It’s tough to come back, but he was amazing. That was special”, Doncic concluded to the media after their big win at home.

Despite the Mavericks’ inconsistencies over the past couple of weeks, there’s still a strong sense of self-identity and confidence for a team that’s looking to build on an 8-3 record in February. This increased belief in the Western Conference is a result of two variables; the ability to now protect the rim for 48 minutes and surrounding Luka Doncic with more athletes that are serviceable on both ends of the court. Though the Mavericks’ are very optimistic about the moves they’ve made at the deadline and how they’ll help in the long run, will it be enough to inaugurate a deep playoff run as currently constructed?

When Mavericks GM Nico Harrison traded for Kyrie Irving about a year ago, many were dubious to believe that he and Doncic, who both suffer from the “both need the ball” mantra would be able to find a common ground in hopes of generating a winning formula. That narrative gained even more momentum when the Mavericks were unable to build viable chemistry during the last stretches of last season in hopes of putting together a playoff run. What transpired during that time period was the Dallas Mavericks’ inept ability to put together timely stops, protect the rim, and as well as rebound the ball at a high level. The Mavericks rumored late-season “tank” led the way to prime positioning in the draft that ultimately landed them the 12th overall pick where they selected Duke stand-out big man Dereck Lively II. For a team that has dealt with numerous injuries up and down the roster and still be in striking distance in the West, a two-game gap that separates the 5th from 8th seed is definitely going to make for a photo finish with about 20 or so games left in the regular season. Doncic and Irving have spent 871 minutes on the court together this season, and in those minutes their offensive rating is 121.0, so for context, the Boston Celtics lead the league in offensive rating at 121.5. Doncic and Irving with any three players on the roster are still producing on par with the NBA’s best offense in 2023-24. Hypothetically, can the Mavericks protect a double-digit lead if Doncic goes to the bench for a breather with let’s say 9:00 min left in the 4th quarter? The starting five unit of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Josh Green, PJ Washington, and Dereck Lively II have the 3rd best offensive rating (132.7) in the league since the All-Star break so getting quality shots down the stretch will pretty much never be an issue as long as both Doncic and Irving are on the court together. The Doncic-Irving dynamic may not be one of Jason Kidd’s biggest worries but there’s still an obligation for those two to set the tone for the entire team, regardless of facet of the game.

The Dallas Mavericks regressed to a bottom-third defense and rebounding team each of the past two seasons after Doncic heroically led a middle-of-the-road Mavericks team all the way to the Western Conference Finals before falling to the eventual NBA champion Golden State Warriors in a competitive five games. 3&D swingman forward Dorian Finney-Smith was the Mavs’ primary point of attack defender who could guard multiple positions effectively. Mavs secondary offensive creators Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie provided supplemental scoring and playmaking throughout and into the postseason that made Doncic less dependent from possession to possession. Maxi Kleber, Davis Bertans, and Reggie Bullock were all high-volume three-point shooters who were huge beneficiaries of the offensive looks Doncic generated routinely but were often too stagnant if asked to create something of their own. The Mavericks lone “rim protector” or paint presence big guy was Dwight Powell who could also often be neutralized in small ball settings, doesn’t offer much in self-creation, or stretching the floor.

Very similar to the 2022 Mavericks team that was 6th in the West by season’s end before getting hot in the spring, this year’s team shares a couple of parallels in terms of deficiencies that have become as glaring as ever and may very well be what holds them back in the future. Though the additions of forward PJ Washington and big man Daniel Gafford undoubtedly bolster a frontline that on occasion has been dominated by opponents in the paint, they’re still a work in progress. So far in Dallas (10 games), PJ Washington is averaging 11.6 points and 5.2 rebounds on 43% shooting from the floor in 31.9 minutes. The individual counting stats won’t leave you enamored but his impact is immense, especially on the defensive side of the court. Through March 6th, when Washington is on the court the Mavericks are outscoring opponents by 4.7 points a game. The Mavericks are also posting a 113.4 defensive rating and outscoring their opponents by 6.4 points per 100 possessions when Washington is on the court. Washington has had some significant matchups where he showcased his defensive capabilities and versatility. Washington doesn’t have the notoriety or lengthy reputation as a formidable ball stopper but his athletic frame and agile feet make him a promising option to assign to opposing multi-facet wing scorers and stretch bigs come playoff time, hopefully. The difference between him and the wing they swapped him for at the trade deadline in Charlotte Hornets forward Grant Williams, is his ability to comfortably switch onto quicker, twitchier offensive players and being able to relentlessly attack off of closeouts from the perimeter. “Effort and effectiveness on that end of the court won’t be a question with Washington as he’s already strung together some solid performances defensively against his opposing matchups. Back on Feb. 22nd versus the Phoenix Suns, Washington‘s matchup, two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant, needed 22 field goal attempts to total 23 points. In two games against the Indiana Pacers over the past couple of weeks, forward Pascal Siakam totaled 25 points on 22 shots. In a win on the road against the Toronto Raptors on Feb. 28th, All-Star forward Scottie Barnes poured in 19 points on 22 shots. It’s evident that Washington’s physical nature and defensive intangibles will make opponents work hard for their production, a component the Mavs have been searching for since they moved off of Dorian Finney-Smith last spring.

PJ Washington on the season is shooting a streaky 31% from the three-point line since he arrived in Dallas, on a shade under six three-point attempts taken a night. Of those attempts, five of those are in catch-and-shoot situations where he’s shooting a mere 32.7%. The Dallas Mavericks rank in the top third in three-point makes and three-point %. A lot of that production is predicated on the offensive brilliance and shot-making ability of both Doncic and Irving. If a playoff run is indeed in the Mavericks’ destiny, can Washington demand the respect of opposing defenses at the three-point line? That’s ultimately one of the Mavericks’ biggest X-Factors going forward. Washington isn’t quite the forward you give the ball in space to create offense at all three levels. Can Kidd maximize the strengths of Washington and designate actions for him on the offensive end in order for him to succeed on nights his shot isn’t falling? Washington is already off to a scorching start shooting a career-high 61% on two-point field goals and is averaging 18.3 points on 48/38/100 splits over his last four games. Washington’s versatility and ability to switch and cover multiple positions on the defensive end is much too valuable for him not to be playing north of 30 minutes a night. Washington still has plenty of time and reps left to get even more acquainted with the gravity of Doncic and Irving and make the most of higher-quality looks.

On the flip side of things, the Mavericks as a team rank 24th in assists. Doncic leads the league in usage rate at an insane 35.9% clip. Those two statistics correlate to the theme of the Mavericks season. Doncic is well on his way to being an All-NBA first-team lock and MVP candidate but the Mavericks post a -2.3 net rating in fourth quarters, 23rd worst in the association. When does it become a factor that the Mavericks are perhaps too heliocentric and dependent on running through Doncic? Doncic and Irving have begun to gain a serious rapport in their two-man game hunting mismatches and playing off of each other in the post leaving defenses at mercy. The Mavericks are putting up 118.7 points per game which is good for 6th best in the league. The main objective going forward outside of the defensive woes is how can Kidd, Doncic, and Irving use their basketball IQs to exponentially raise the floor of the role players and put them in positions to be effective on the offensive end.

An interesting trend I’ve noticed since the All-Star break forward is that big man Maxi Kleber is out playing both Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford in the fourth quarters. Over Kleber’s last five games, he’s shooting 2/12 from three, I don’t believe the Mavericks are in dire need of his shooting in crunch-time scenarios considering they have five players (Doncic, Irving, Jones Jr., Green, and Washington) that are currently shooting 35% or better from deep since the break. Dereck Lively recently has been recovering from a nasal fracture over the past couple of weeks so it’ll be interesting to see how Kidd figures out the pecking order of his big men going forward. Through March 6th, Tim Hardaway Jr. is shooting 29.3% from beyond the arc since the All-Star break (5.9 3PA/game) and at some point will break through and return to his usual mid-30s percent range that he was shooting before the season’s intermission. Considering the Mavericks’ bottom third ranks in rebounding, defensive rating, points allowed, opponent FG%, defensive rebounding %, and opponent paint scoring there are a lot of glaring issues they have to continue to address especially with the playoffs rapidly approaching. Hypothetically, can the Mavericks protect a double-digit lead if Doncic goes to the bench for a breather with let’s say 9:00 min left in the 4th quarter of Game 3 of a series tied 1-1? “We got 22 games left, we’ll know here by the halfway point of that to understand what the rotation looks like going forward,” Kidd reminded the media after the Pacers loss on Tuesday night. The Mavericks cannot continue to shrug off the constant defensive lapses and lack of communication on the other end and make efforts to be more unified on the defensive end. “I thought D-Live [Dereck Lively II]; his energy, he came up with some big defensive stops and then the offensive rebound was big for us. I thought, again, his length on Bam [Adebayo] there at the end, he made him miss and we got stops when we had to.” Kidd elaborated to the press following the victory. The advanced metrics don’t tell the entire story but the Mavericks’ top defensive rotations since the All-Star break have been any assortment of Kleber, PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, Dante Exum, and Josh Green. The difference between this year and last, Kidd can now play Kleber majority with either Gafford or Lively II and he won’t be overmatched in the paint. Not a luxury the Mavericks had a year ago or in 2022 when they made the Western Conference Finals. Doncic didn’t have this many athletic utility guys at his disposal the past couple of years, but with now plenty of rim protection depth and athletes to mitigate opponents keying in on his and Irving’s at times defensive deficiencies and disadvantages, the Mavericks should be in a much better place. Emphasis on “should” but no guarantee of “will”.