Fantasy Baseball Radar - Winter Meetings

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While MLB free agency is already in full swing, the market takes a while to reach its boiling point. Ironically, it’s the winter meetings where the hottest moves of the free agency period are made. There has been a flurry of big moves at the Winter Meetings, and more are in the pipeline. Of course, these moves will have drastic fantasy baseball ramifications, but don’t worry, I’ve taken the time to process these signings for you:

Aaron Judge returns to the Yankees

To the chagrin of Giants fans, me, and Jon Heyman, Aaron Judge resigned to the Yankees on a monster 9-year/$360 mil contract during this year’s winter meetings. While one would assume it’ll be much of the same concerning Judge’s production, I would project a slight decline for Judge. Judge’s 2022 production was boosted, not only by the typical contract year boost but juiced baseballs for the later part of the season to push Judge past Maris’ AL-Home run record. Judge isn’t going to completely stink it up in 2023, but expect a line similar to the ones he posted in the years before 2022 (think a 150 OPS+ vs. Judge’s 211 OPS+ in 2022). While he may have been a fantasy superstar in 2022, I would reserve the 1.01 spot for Shohei Ohtani.

Jameson Taillon to the Cubs

The former Yankees pitcher got a bag from the Chicago Cubs in a $68 million 4-year deal. Taillon is, by all measures, an average starting pitcher, with a dead average ERA+ of 100 over the past two seasons. What little fantasy value Taillon produced as a Yankee is going to be erased with a move to a Cubs defense that saved only one run in non-shift defensive alignments.

Taijuan Walker to the Phillies

The 2021 all-star took a 4-year/$72 million contract to join the esteemed Phillies pitching corp. I write with little conviction when I say that Taijuan Walker has been alright as a major league pitcher. Walker will replace the next guy on this list as the Phillies’ #4 starter, which isn’t a huge change from his #4 role with the Mets. He’s worth a late-round pickup, but don’t expect Walker to wow you.

Mitch Haniger to the Giants

Mitch Haniger has surprisingly amassed 2 top-20 MVP finishes in his 6-year career. As a Seattle Mariner, Haniger slashes .261/.335/.476 with 112 homers on a collective 123 OPS+. Mitch Haniger has proved to be a productive player, when healthy, but the contract requires him to return to 2021 form – a season where he slugged 39 homers. Haniger rounds out a solid hitting lineup in San Francisco with his running mates being Joc Pederson and Mike Yazstremski. His injury history makes drafting him difficult, but I’d keep an eye on Haniger as the season moves along.

Willson Contreras to the Cardinals

Former Cub Willson Contreras has signed with the division rival St. Louis Cardinals to fill a Yadier-Molina-sized hole at the backstop position. It’s hard to find productive fantasy catchers but replacing Yadier Molina is no small task – it’s worth wondering if Contreras succumbs to early pressure. I wouldn’t draft Contreras if given the option, but he may be a great early trade option.

Masataka Yoshida to the Red Sox

After a maddeningly unimpressive start to the Winter Meetings, Red Sox GM Chaim Bloom has made some big signings. His biggest yet – barring a Bogaerts resigning by the time this article goes up – is the 5-year/$90 million signing of Nippon League OF Masataka Yoshida. Posted just a day ago, the 5’8 Japanese star has slashed an eye-popping line of .326/.419/.538 in 7 seasons. Yoshida is a well-rounded hitter and could surprise some at the start of the season. I’m personally excited to draft Yoshida in fantasy baseball next season.

Kenley Jansen to the Red Sox

Kenley Jansen is a closer. Closers are like fantasy diamonds, and a talented and acclaimed closer on a possibly competitive team is like a Blue Nile. He may not be the Kohinoor, but Jansen should be a very productive fantasy pitcher next season.

Cody Bellinger to the Cubs

It seems like just yesterday that Cody Bellinger was putting up 47 homers on a 1.000+ OPS. Bellinger improved from an abysmal 44 OPS+ season in 2021 to a 78 OPS+ season in 2022. It isn’t much, but you’ll take improvement wherever you can get it. Despite those horrific numbers, Bellinger may still have a fairly high ADP off of nostalgia alone. His shoulder is pretty much healed now, but I’d wait for some signs that Bellinger is doing better mentally before I get my hopes up. Make no mistake though, Cody Bellinger can be a bonafide league-winner if he can put it all back together.

Andrew Heaney to the Rangers

The latest product of the Dodgers’ pitching rehab center has cashed in on a 2-year incentive-laden contract with the Rangers. Based on pure stuff, Heaney may have been the best non-superstar pitcher on the market. His slider has produced a .168 xBA and his fastball a .223 xBA and he was in the 95th+ percentile for K%, Whiff rate, Chase Rate, and fastball spin. Heaney could be in line for a fantasy breakout season.

Jacob deGrom to the Rangers

Now to the Rangers’ lesser pitching acquisition. Seriously though, deGrom has the potential to put up GOAT-level performances every time he steps on a pitching mound. I think it’s safe to say that the Texas Rangers have had themselves a decent run at these Winter Meetings. Injuries are always a bummer in fantasy, but if there was a guy to take a gamble on it’d be Jacob Anthony deGrom.

Josh Bell to the Guardians

Josh Bell started out last season as one of the league’s best fantasy baseball first basemen but his production bottomed out after he was traded along with Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres. It’s hard to determine whether that second half .192 BA was a product of Bell not liking San Diego, but he’ll likely be, at the very least, serviceable for the Guardians. With a fantasy position as deep as 1B, Bell is nothing more than a mid-round pickup at this point.

Trea Turner to the Phillies

Dave Dombrowski brought out the Brinks truck to sign SS Trea Turner to an 11-year/$300 mil deal. Trea Turner, weirdly, may like being in Philadelphia more than LA as he was quick to move past his tenure with the Dodgers. The 29-year-old is still near his athletic peak so I wouldn’t predict any regression from the superstar shortstop. Turner’s high steal ceiling and hit tool make him one of the more fun fantasy pickups, regardless of format.

Justin Verlander to the Mets

I have no reason to assume that Justin Verlander will fall off a cliff in 2023. Honestly, I can’t imagine Verlander ever falling off a cliff at this point. He’ll be 70 throwing a wicked backdoor slider to Mike Yazstremski’s grandson. He may not repeat as Cy Young winner with a tougher cohort of competitors in Sandy Alcantara, Max Fried, and Zac Gallen, but Verlander will undoubtedly continue to defy father time.

Zach Eflin to the Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays handed out the largest contract in franchise history to… Zach Eflin. The Oviedo, Florida native has put up a 4.49 ERA in 6 seasons for the Phillies with consistent improvement each season. I wouldn’t put too much money on Eflin doing much of anything as a #4 starter in Tampa Bay, but the Rays pitching lab always has a way of making these things work out.