Fantasy Football 2024: Is It Better to Wait to Draft Rookies

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One of the most conventional methods of winning in fantasy football is to stick with what you know and who you know. Although some fantasy football owners are willing to take risks on rookies who might dominate headlines and rack up out-of-this-world stats starting in week one, it’s usually logical to stick with the veterans.

However, there will always be that one person out there who will “stick it to the fantasy football gurus” and take Chicago Bears Quarterback Caleb Williams in the first round and not even hesitate. It’s going to happen in someone’s league. You can expect it but you don’t have to be that person.

Let’s say hypothetically you want to draft Cardinals receiver Marvin Harrison Junior in the first three rounds. Let’s pump the brakes on this idea. Although he’ll probably put up unreal stats starting week one especially with veteran scrambler Kyler Murray throwing him the ball, we don’t really know what he’ll do in week one and the first half of the season. Anyone who drafts a rookie like Quarterback Williams or receiver Harrison Junior early on is taking a huge gamble. The better option is to select a veteran quarterback like Ravens Lamar Jackson or Chiefs Patrick Mahomes over Williams in the first or second round. For receivers, it’s better to take the veterans like Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson early on.

Although you could be “sitting on a gold mine” with some rookies at various positions, you’re better off waiting until the middle rounds to start drafting your rookies. Although I once took this gamble on Running Back Najee Harris in his rookie year early on in the draft (which actually paid off) this is a rare example. It’s generally what you don’t do if you want to win.

Some fantasy football owners will believe in outstanding and quick rookie development and therefore will be more than willing to “risk it for the biscuit” in regards to drafting a rookie or two in the first four rounds. It’s important to know that drafting a rookie or two early could lead to early losses with a hope and prayer of earning enough wins in the middle of the season and late season to squeak into the playoffs. After all, that one crazy owner who takes Williams and Harrison Junior in the first four rounds might end up laughing at everyone else who didn’t take the risk.

Part of the game is analyzing probable outcomes. You have to anticipate what’s going to happen. It’s more likely that veterans at each position will accumulate more points than the top rookies will. It’s also important to remember that you can just as easily go with the mentality “If you’re going to sit in the Captain’s chair, you need to take risks” to use a Star Trek reference.

For example, let’s say Williams has a year similar to former Colts Quarterback Andrew Luck. In his rookie season, Luck passed for 4,374 yards and 23 touchdowns. If that’s the case, minus the interceptions, then Williams could be one of the biggest steals in fantasy football draft history.

As always, the ball is in your court. What you do with you is entirely up to you. Good luck this season.