Analyzing Seven Point NFL Point Spreads

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A point spread set by a sportsbook is meant to do two things. Ideally, the perfect spread will motivate a large population of bettors to place an equal amount of wagers on the favorite to win by more than the established point total, or the underdog to lose within that same range. If money is coming in significantly more heavily on one side than the other then the point spread will change and adjust in order to achieve the above-mentioned objective.

Since touchdowns plus an extra point are worth seven points in an NFL game, there is a lot of attention paid to that number in the gambling world. What does a +7 spread mean in the NFL betting?

Let’s explain this using an example that a fan might actually see. Let’s say the Indianapolis Colts have a +7-point spread against the Tennessee Titans. This means that the Colts are expected to lose to the Titans by 7 or more points. On the other side of the coin, the Titans will be reflected as -7 favorites.

In order to hold up their end of the bargain for fans who bet on Indianapolis, they will either need to win the game or lose by less than seven points. Fans who bet on Tennessee will need them to beat Indianapolis by more than seven points.

There are a few things to consider when seeing a +7 or -7 spread on a betting line in an NFL game.

The Game Is Not Expected To Be Close

All things considered, a seven-point line in an NFL game is kind of a lot. Most lines in a given NFL weekend will fall in a range lower than that because the thinking is that the two teams playing are more evenly matched. If a bettor notices a +7 or -7 for a game, it means that the sportsbook thinks there is very little chance that the favorite will lose to the underdog.

With that being said, this relatively large spread can work to the advantage of someone who thinks the underdog has a real chance of competing. It can be comforting to know that your wager can still be successful even if your team loses by six or fewer points. It builds in a layer of insurance if the underdog comes close but can’t pull out the victory.

One Score Can Make Or Break The Bet

As alluded to in the introductory part of the piece, a touchdown can be worth a total of seven points, which can make things interesting in a line that is +7/-7. For example, if the Colts and Titans are tied 24-24 late in the fourth quarter, and Tennessee has the ball close to the opponent’s goal line with less than 20 seconds to go, how they score will affect who wins the bet. If the Titans score a touchdown and make the extra point, they’ll likely win 31-24. This will cause the spread to become a “push”, where no one wins.

If the Titans kick a field goal to go up 27-24, and the game ends shortly thereafter than wagers on the Colts win since they lost by three points, or less than seven.

Missed Extra Points Make A Big Difference

In the NFL, it used to be a foregone conclusion that a kicker would convert an extra point. The ball used to be placed at the two-yard line, making the kick close to automatic. While college football keeps the extra point distance close, the NFL has pushed back the attempt for an extra point.

It is now a 33-yard try, and kickers are much more prone to missing than they ever were before. Missed PATs, or points after touchdowns, can have an impact on whether a spread is covered or not.