Gunslingers for Hire: Breaking Down the 2026 NFL Quarterback Free Agency

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A “reclamation” theme defines the 2026 NFL quarterback market. With a draft class largely viewed as a one-man show (Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza), quarterback-needy teams are forced to look at high-risk, high-reward veterans and former first-rounders looking for their third or fourth “fresh start.”

As the March 11 free agency deadline approaches, here is the state of the 2026 QB carousel.

1. The “Reclamation” Tier: High-Risk Starters

Several big names are currently in “limbo,” with their franchises weighing massive dead-cap hits against the need for a total reset.

Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals): The relationship in Arizona is officially “fractured.” After being effectively benched for Jacoby Brissett in late 2025, Murray’s camp is reportedly pushing for a release so he can choose his next destination. The Cleveland Browns and New York Jets are heavily linked as potential trade partners if the Cardinals agree to eat a portion of his $42.5 million 2026 salary.
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins): The Dolphins face a $99 million “cap bomb” if they cut Tua outright. However, rumors suggest Miami is ready to move on, potentially favoring a “Packer-to-Dolphin” pipeline by targeting Malik Willis (who thrived in relief for Green Bay) to lead a new era under coach Jeff Hafley.
Daniel Jones (Indianapolis Colts): Coming off a resurgent 2025 where he threw for over 3,000 yards before an Achilles tear, Jones is the top-ranked unrestricted free agent. While Indy wants him back, teams like the Giants (a potential reunion?) are monitoring his recovery.

2. The “Bridge” Veterans: One Last Ride?

For teams drafting a rookie or waiting for the 2027 class, these veterans offer a steady hand—at a price.

Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers): At 42, Rodgers is a free agent after a one-year stint in Pittsburgh, where he led them to the playoffs. While retirement is on the table, a return to the Steelers under Mike McCarthy remains the most likely outcome if he plays.
Russell Wilson (New York Giants): After a quiet year in New York, Wilson is back on the market. He is viewed as the “ultimate insurance policy” for teams with young rosters, like the Las Vegas Raiders (should they miss out on Mendoza).
Derek Carr (Unretired?): In a shocking twist, Derek Carr—who retired last May—is reportedly “open to a comeback” for a championship contender. The Saints still hold his rights, meaning any return would likely involve a trade or a release-and-sign.

3. The “Potential” Projects

The 2026 market is uniquely high on “what if” candidates who haven’t had a fair shake or have shown flashes of elite talent in limited roles.

Malik Willis (Green Bay Packers): Willis is the “darling” of the 2026 free agent class. After posting an 86.3 QBR in limited action for the Packers, he is expected to command a significant “prove-it” contract from a team like the Dolphins or Vikings.
Justin Fields (New York Jets): Fields’ tenure in New York was a struggle (2–7 as a starter), and with the Jets holding the No. 2 overall pick, his exit is inevitable. He remains the most physically gifted runner on the market, potentially fitting a run-heavy scheme in Baltimore or Atlanta.

2026 QB Market Snapshot

Player	Status	Age	Best Potential Fit
Kyler Murray	Trade/Cut Candidate	29	Cleveland Browns
Daniel Jones	UFA (Coming off ACL)	28	Indianapolis Colts
Malik Willis	UFA	26	Miami Dolphins
Aaron Rodgers	UFA	42	Pittsburgh Steelers
Kirk Cousins	UFA	37	Minnesota Vikings

Key Date: March 15

This is the “Trigger Date” for several massive contracts. If Kyler Murray is still on the Cardinals’ roster or Dak Prescott hasn’t been restructured by the Cowboys, their 2027 guarantees kick in, likely locking them into their current teams or forcing a desperation trade.