NBA Swing: The Impact of May 12, 2025

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While the NBA is deep into the second round of the playoffs, the news surrounding the league this week has been its loudest. On May 12th, two significant events occurred, having a significant impact on the league in the present day as well as having an impact heading into the future.

Dallas Mavericks Win 2025 Draft Lottery

With a chance to draft Cooper Flagg on the line, many teams would tank, but no one was prepared for the lottery results. With just a 1.8% chance to win the lottery, the Dallas Mavericks would climb 10+ spots to land the first overall pick of the 2025 draft.

Many were quick to call out the potential rigging of the draft lottery. With the Dallas Mavericks trading their former franchise player in Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers only to receive the first overall pick and the opportunity to draft a franchise player, many drew comparisons to the 2011, 2014, and 2019 drafts, which all saw key players from a franchise moved or involved another big move directly after.

With the Mavericks going to draft Flagg, this is another year where the Western Conference has landed another generational talent. Many consider the drafting of LeBron James in 2023 as the last time the Eastern Conference got a generational player. At the same time, more than the Dallas Mavericks are affected by the lottery.

The San Antonio Spurs, who had a 26% chance to land in the top four, jumped into the top four, landing the second pick in the draft. Already having a generational talent in Victor Wembanyama and key pieces alongside him in De’Aaron Fox, rookie of the year Stephon Castle, and Devin Vassell, the Spurs have the chance to add another young star. Or they could shock the league this summer and use that pick in a big-time trade.

Rumors suggest the Spurs could keep the second pick and draft Rutgers star Dylan Harper, despite the rumors they could be a contender for Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo if he requests a trade this summer. Harper would be a great young addition next to Wembanyama, Fox, and Castle if they select him. If they were to use that pick as a trade chip in a package for a star like Antetokounmpo, they would become immediate contenders in the West.

With the Mavericks and Spurs landing in the top four, the lottery also saw the three worst teams fall several spots. The Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz, and Washington Wizards all had a 14% chance of landing the first overall pick. The Hornets, Jazz, and Wizards would fall to fourth, fifth, and sixth in the draft, respectively. For the fourth season in a row, the worst team in the league has not landed the top pick in the draft, showing the true downside of tanking in the modern NBA.

As the Western Conference lands another generational talent, the disparity between the two conferences continues to grow. In the 2024-25 NBA season, seventh and eighth-seeds, the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies both finished with a 48-34 record, a record that would’ve landed them as the five seed in the Eastern Conference.

Jayson Tatum Tears Achilles

On the same night of the NBA draft lottery, the Boston Celtics would receive one of the biggest blows possible. With just minutes left in their game 4 matchup against the New York Knicks, Celtics star Jayson Tatum would tear his Achilles. Despite being down 2-1 at the time, many believed the Celtics were still the team most likely to come out of the East.

Tatum’s injury is the latest in a slew of injuries during the playoffs. Bucks star Damian Lillard would tear his Achilles in the first round of the playoffs, Jimmy Butler would suffer from an injury in the first round of the playoffs, and Stephen Curry would suffer a hamstring injury that would play a role in the Warriors’ second-round elimination. Although reports suggest Tatum’s recovery time could be 8-9 months, it’s possible he could miss upwards of a year. Tatum’s injury would not only play a significant role in the end of the series, but will also play a significant role in the East next season as well.

With Tatum almost guaranteed to miss the entire 2025-26 season, the Eastern Conference could be wide open for the first time in a long time. The Cleveland Cavaliers could be a legitimate contender in a weakened East, even if they don’t make any changes this summer. The New York Knicks could be a contender next season with the core they have. If he remains with the Bucks or ends up on another team in the conference, Giannis Antetokounmpo could carry his team to the postseason.

At the same time, ownership changes and the new CBA could bring bigger changes to Boston this offseason as well, accelerated by Tatum’s injury. Rumblings around the league suggest the Celtics could look to deal players like Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to avoid a salary bill of over $500 million. Boston could move on from two of the biggest x-factors in their 2023 championship run. Reports on Al Horford point to the 18-year veteran not retiring this offseason and looking to re-sign with the team. Entering his age-39 season, Horford could be a casualty of the Celtics looking to cut costs.

With Boston potentially moving on from several players this summer, in addition to losing Jayson Tatum for most of, if not all of, the 2025-26 season, the Celtics are likely to take a step back next season. The following season, there is no telling how the Celtics or Jayson Tatum will look. Likely to be 29 years old by the time he returns, Tatum will still be in his prime years. At the same time, a few NBA players come back at the same level or better than before the injury. Tatum is expected to make a full recovery, but the player he is when he returns will be different from the player he was before.