NBA 2025-26 Preview: Championship Hopes Take a Hit After VanVleet Injury

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Heading into the 2025-26 NBA season, expectations were sky-high for the Houston Rockets. After an unexpected 52-30 campaign that ended in a seven-game first-round loss to the Golden State Warriors, Houston made several aggressive, championship-minded moves. The biggest was a blockbuster trade for Kevin Durant, sending out Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks. Other notable additions included Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Okogie. Sportsbooks quickly placed the Rockets among the league’s top contenders — but one devastating injury may have altered that outlook.

On Monday, reports confirmed that guard Fred VanVleet tore his ACL during an offseason workout and is likely to miss the entire 2025-26 season. With typical recovery times stretching beyond a year, the injury comes at the worst possible moment. Houston loses its on-court leader, a steady shooter, and a dependable scoring option.

This one hurts,” one Rockets staffer admitted privately. “Fred’s our anchor. He’s the guy everyone looks to in the fourth quarter. You can replace scoring, maybe. But leadership? That’s different.”

In 2024-25, VanVleet started 60 games, averaging 14.1 points, 5.6 assists, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. While he accepted a slightly reduced role with Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green stepping up, VanVleet still provided consistency. After betting on himself in 2023 free agency, he returned to the Rockets on a two-year, $50 million deal, with the second year as a player option.

Financially, Houston faces a crunch. As of September 24, 2025, their payroll sits at $194.6 million, just $1.2 million shy of the league’s $195.9 million first apron. That leaves little flexibility to add outside talent. One obvious option would be veteran point guard Russell Westbrook, still unsigned after averaging 13.3 points, 6.1 assists, and 4.9 rebounds in 75 games with Denver. But even his $3.4 million veteran minimum would push the Rockets into the apron.

With the championship window small — especially if Durant does not re-sign next summer — Houston may need to explore the trade market. One proposed target is Coby White of the Chicago Bulls, who averaged 20.4 points, 4.5 assists, and 3.7 rebounds in 74 games last season. White is due $12.8 million this year before hitting free agency, and with Chicago recently re-signing Josh Giddey, his future is uncertain. Fadeaway World floated a package of Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, and a second-round pick for White.

Another possibility, though costlier, is veteran guard Jrue Holiday. Now with Portland after being dealt from Boston, Holiday averaged 11.1 points, 3.9 assists, and 4.3 rebounds last season. His contract — $32 million, $34 million, and $37 million over the next three years — would be tough to swallow, but his defensive and playmaking skills could be a championship-level addition.

The most likely short-term solution, however, may be internal: moving rookie Reed Sheppard into the starting lineup. Drafted third overall in 2025, Sheppard played sparingly during Houston’s surprise run last year, averaging 4.4 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 12 minutes across 52 games. Though his numbers don’t jump off the page, his college career at Kentucky showed promise and hinted at the potential to step into a bigger role.

Still, the betting markets reflect lowered expectations. Before VanVleet’s injury, Houston had 7-to-1 championship odds. Afterward, their odds slid to 14-to-1. With less than a month before the season tips off, the Rockets face a pivotal decision: gamble on internal development, search for outside help, or risk letting their fleeting title window close.