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With the 2025 NBA playoffs officially beginning today, 16 teams will start competing for their chance to win the 2025 NBA championship. The remaining 14 teams will have a chance at landing the top pick in the draft. While many see the consensus number one overall pick being Duke’s Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils forward is yet to decide on whether he’ll declare for the draft or return to Duke for another season.
In his freshman season at Duke, Flagg showed the basketball world that the hype surrounding him was real. In 37 games during the. 2024-25 NCAA basketball season, Flagg would average 19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 4.2 APG on shooting splits of 48% from the field and 38% from three. In the 2025 NCAA tournament, Flagg would average 19.5 PPG and 7.8 RPG, leading Duke to the Final Four. Duke would ultimately fall short to the Houston Cougars.
In what could be his only college season, Flagg won numerous awards, including National College Player of the Year, ACC Player of the Year, ACC Rookie of the Year, and the Julius Erving Award.
Before Duke’s Final Four appearance, there were already rumblings that Flagg might choose to stay at Duke if the team did not win the tournament championship. When talking to Fox Sports and asked about choosing between heading to the NBA or staying at Duke, Flagg would answer with indecision:
“I’m just going through the process. Really, we haven’t had much time to talk about it yet. I got the chance to come out here (Los Angeles) and take some time with myself and my family, and take some time to reflect on the season I’ve had. I’m not in a particular rush. I’m just going through the process, going to talk with everybody I need to, and will decide on what’s best for me.”
With the 2024-25 NBA season over, the odds for the draft are locked in. The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets each have a 14% chance of landing the top pick, while the New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers have a 12.5% and 10% chance of landing the top pick, respectively.
Notable names that have declared for the 2025 NBA Draft so far include Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, who has been projected to be the 2nd pick in the draft, Oklahoma freshman Jeremiah Fears, Michigan State freshman Jase Richardson, and Flagg’s Duke teammate Kon Knueppel.
Cooper has as many reasons to stay at Duke as he does to go to the NBA. Known as a ferocious competitor, winning an NCAA championship with Duke is very enticing to Flagg. Flagg would have more top-tier future NBA draft prospects to play with, including Cameron and Cayden Boozer, Shelton Henderson, and Nikolas Khamenia. Flagg has also been believed to make just under $5 million in NIL money through various endorsements and deals.
On the other hand, going to the league would bring Flagg to the biggest stage and the best opportunity to win, if he lands on the right team. Over the last few seasons, the team with the worst record has not always landed the top pick. Last season, the Atlanta Hawks landed the top pick despite having only a 3% chance of landing the pick. In 2023, the San Antonio Spurs landed the pick while being tied for the second-worst record in the league. In 2022, the Orlando Magic landed the first pick despite having the second-worst record in the league. While it’s not guaranteed, a team could jump up in the lottery to land the first overall pick.
If Cooper remains at Duke, several teams will lose out on the chance to land Flagg, while some get another opportunity to land a generational talent next season. While it’s highly unlikely Flagg would fall outside of the top three in the 2026 NBA Draft, there is a college season of injury risk as well as other players who could compete for the top spot. Potential names at the top of the 2026 draft include Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, and Darryn Peterson.
For now, the NBA and Duke wait on Cooper Flagg’s decision. With the 2025 NBA Draft lottery set for May 12th, Flagg could wait to see who lands the number one pick in the draft before making his decision. If he chooses to go to the NBA, he will, without a doubt, be the number one pick in the 2025 draft. If he stays at Duke, he has the opportunity to bring them their first NCAA men’s basketball championship since 2015.
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