Is U.S.A Basketball Odds-on Favorite for the Last Time?

Read Time:3 Minute, 26 Second

While the NBA is in the quietest part of the offseason, the focus of the basketball world has turned to the Olympics. Friday saw the beginning of the 2024 Paris Olympics with basketball starting on Saturday. Sunday will see US Men’s Basketball play their first game in the preliminary round, facing Serbia, who they beat 105-79 during the U.S.A Basketball Showcase.

Via Fox Sports, the U.S.A. has the highest odds to win the gold medal with Canada and France with the second and third highest odds, but still far behind the United States. U.S.A. Basketball is the only team in the Olympics that features a roster of all NBA players with the roster including:

Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
Jrue Holiday, Boston Celtics
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Derrick White, Boston Celtics

This superstar-studded roster would come together to follow U.S.A. Basketball’s fourth-place finish in the 2023 FIBA World Cup and criticism of the team’s play. Even though the U.S.A. Basketball roster has been almost all NBA players since 1992, the same cannot be said for the rest of the world come Olympics time.

In 1992, 11 of the 12 players for the United States were NBA players (although Magic Johnson had retired for the first time). There would only be 13 non-American NBA players across the remaining Olympic teams. In the 32 years since, the amount of non-American NBA players. In the Olympics has only increased. The 2024 Paris Olympics will see 30 non-American NBA players across the teams with notable names including:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC Thunder (Canada)
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (Serbia)
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets (Canada)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (Greece)
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (France)

Of the opposing teams in the 2024 Olympics, Canada’s men’s basketball roster has the second most NBA-stacked roster featuring 10 current NBA players including MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Canada would finish third in the 2023 FIBA World Cup, with many of the players from that roster returning for the Olympics.

While the outlook for basketball outside the United States is continuing to grow at a rapid pace with over a quarter of all current NBA players being international players, the concern for the future of U.S.A. Basketball is on the rise. Looking ahead, it is expected that several notable names will not be playing for the United States again.

LeBron James is expected to be retired by the time the 2028 Olympics come around and the same might be expected of Kevin Durant. Stephen Curry has said the 2024 games will be the only time he plays, and there is no telling if vets like Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, and Joel Embiid will still be around or interested in playing in 2028. It is expected that there will be coaching changes heading into the 2028 Olympics as well.

While there are still plenty of young stars on the current roster and that could be on future rosters, the competition around the world is only going to get better. During the U.S.A. Basketball showcase, the United States would play in several shockingly close games including a six-point win over Australia, a four-point win over Germany, and a one-point win over a South Sudan team that features no current NBA players. Even though U.S.A. Basketball has won gold in eight of the last 10 Olympics, the skill gap is getting smaller and smaller every four years.

The United States will play three games in the group phase. The first game will be against Serbia on July 28th, the second game will take place on July 31st against South Sudan, and the final game of the group phase will be against Puerto Rico on August 3rd.