NBA Swing: Tank Talk: Who Will Land Wembanyama?

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With the season just over a quarter of the way through, many NBA teams are looking towards the second half and even towards the playoff. At the same time, a small handful of teams have already given up on this season and have their sights set on the 2023 draft and projected #1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama of the Metropolitans 92. Wembanyama has been showing out in France, with the NBA even paying six figures for the streaming rights to all his games this season. At this point in the season, there are five teams that can truly be in the conversation for the first overall pick of the 2023 NBA draft. In the Western Conference, the San Antonio Spurs (9-18) and Houston Rockets (9-19) sit at the bottom of the standings. In the Eastern Conference, the Orlando Magic (9-20), Charlotte Hornets (7-21), and Detroit Pistons (8-22) hold the three worst records in the league.

The San Antonio Spurs have been on a downfall since the end of the Tim Duncan dynasty era. After 22 years of making the playoffs and winning five championships, the Spurs have won less than 35 games in each of the last three seasons and have missed the playoffs. While there looked like hope in the last couple of seasons with Dejounte Murray, he was traded to the Hawks in the offseason. Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell have both looked like potential young stars in this league but struggle to compete with most teams. San Antonio has had some surprising wins this season including wins over Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Philadelphia. Adding Victor Wembanyama would be a huge addition for the Spurs, and if they were lucky, kickstart their next dynasty era. In likely his last season as an NBA coach, Gregg Popovich has already made it clear the Spurs won’t be winning the championship this year. With the team going on massive losing streaks this season and their schedule only looking to get tougher, the Spurs could make multiple pieces available to help their efforts to land Wembanyama.

A few hours down the road, the Houston Rockets are in a similar position. Following the end of the James Harden era, the Rockets have been one of the worst teams in the league for the last two seasons. The Rockets have won 37 games in the last two seasons, helping them land key pieces for their future including Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. While pieces like Kevin Porter Jr. and Alperen Sengün have been valuable pieces, they still struggle to compete with many teams. The team has had some surprise wins this season over Milwaukee, Phoenix, Philly, and Dallas, making many question what exactly the team is doing this season. Adding Wembanyama would give Houston a fierce frontcourt placing him alongside Sengün. As the Rockets are struggling more against their Western Conference foes and their schedule not being in their favor, Houston could have one of the worst records by the end of the season.

In Orlando, the Magic just drafted a future NBA star with #1 overall draft pick Paolo Banchero. Unfortunately, the team has not been able to compete with most teams. Orlando has had a couple of solid wins as of late over the Clippers and Raptors but are blown out on most nights. There are several bright spots with the Magic including the rise of Bol Bol and the Wagner brothers, but the roster cannot compete in the Eastern Conference. Currently sitting at 9-20 (13th in the East), rumors have stated multiple players could be up for trades as the team looks to focus on youth while also leaning into the tank. With Banchero missing some time as well as other young talent missing games here and there, the Magic could be facing many losses in the future. Looking ahead at the rest of the season, Orlando’s schedule consists mainly of playoff and championship contenders. It would not be a surprise if the Magic sit Banchero throughout the season to help increase their odds at the 2023 first-overall pick.

In Charlotte, the Hornets have had a horrible season so far. The team currently sits at 7-21 (15th in the East). Their main star in LaMelo Ball has only played three games this season as he was recovering from an injury. Without LaMelo, the team is one of the worst on both ends of the court, being dead last in offensive rating. Terry Rozier and Kelly Oubre Jr. have been the only bright spots for the team and Gordan Hayward has missed over half the season, last year’s first-round pick James Bouknight hasn’t progressed how Charlotte thought he would and rookie Center Mark Williams has played very few games this season. At the rate the team is playing, they have two realistic options if they want to fully tank for Wembanyama. They could trade players like Hayward and Oubre who could bring back picks and sit LaMelo more often. This would be frowned upon by the league and LaMelo, and the decision to sit him out more games could damage his relationship with the team. Drafting Wembaynama would be huge for the Hornets to pair alongside Ball, but the decision to embrace the tank fully could upset their star guard.

Of the teams in the race for the bottom, the Detroit Pistons may have the best chances of landing Wembanyama come the draft. Detroit has a young team full of talent but is missing that piece that would help them compete. Rookie Jaden Ivey looks to be in the ROY conversation while Saddiq Bey has stepped with the Pistons this year. Cade Cunningham has been a key for the Pistons this season but is being shut down to have season-ending surgery on his shin. The already struggling team has looked even worse without Cunningham, currently going 5-13 in the games he’s missed so far this season. At the same time, Detroit has a very valuable trade piece in Bojan Bogdanovic, who currently leads the team in scoring at 21.0 PPG. Missing Cunningham and trading Bogdanovic would leave the Pistons with a young roster that would likely win only a handful of games the rest of the season. If the Pistons could land the #1 pick in the 2023 draft, Wembanyama would be a huge piece for Detroit, helping turn them into a playoff team.

As of this writing, Tankathon has the following odds of each team landing the first overall draft pick:

Detroit: 14.0%

Charlotte: 14.0%still

Orlando: 14.0%

Houston: 11.5%

San Antonio: 11.5%

If the NBA season were to end today, Detroit would land the 2023 first-overall pick and Victor Wembanyama. While there is still 50+ games left for all of these teams, it’s likely these five teams will remain in the Wembanyama conversation all season. There’s a small chance the Washington Wizards, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Los Angeles Lakers could enter the conversation if they keep losing, but they’re far enough ahead to have less than a 10% chance of landing the first overall draft pick.