NBA Swing: Predicting Award Winners at the Halfway Point of the Season

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With the second half of the NBA season in full swing, many journalists and NBA personalities are beginning to talk about awards season. Players have made their case for awards, as well as coaches. At the end of the season, awards will be given out for MVP, Most Improved, Sixth Man of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Players of the Year, Coach of the Year, and Executive of the Year. While some of these awards should be unanimous, many of them are quite open.

Coach of the Year

Last season, Tom Thibodeau of the New York Knicks won the award, coaching the Knicks to the fourth seed in the East after years of not making the NBA playoffs. Coaches like Monty Williams of the Phoenix Suns and Quin Snyder of the Utah Jazz finished second and third in the voting. Both of those coaches deserve to be in contention for Coach of the Year this year. In addition, Billy Donovan of the Chicago Bulls, Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors, and Mike Budenholzer of the Milwaukee Bucks all deserve mention as well. While Steve Nash does have an impressive record with the Brooklyn Nets, the fact he has Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden on his roster will take away from his odds of winning. Of the coaches mentioned, Monty Williams, Billy Donovan, and Steve Kerr should be finalists. No one expected Phoenix, Golden State, and Chicago to be in the positions they are in right now. Of those three finalists, Monty Williams has the best odds of winning. The second seed and a finals trip for the Suns last season were led by Williams. While many thought that was a fluke, the Suns are the top seed in the West and first overall in the NBA right now. It’s possible that Williams could lead the Suns to the Finals again. While they face obstacles like the Golden State Warriors, Williams can lead the Suns to more significant wins.

Winner: Monty Williams

Runner-Up: Billy Donovan

Executive of the Year

While they make the moves, NBA executives do not tend to get a lot of credit unless they are taking the blame for a team’s failures. This season, there should be only three contenders for Executive of the Year. At this point in the season, the contenders for the award should be Koby Altman of the Cleveland Cavaliers, Arturas Karnisovas of the Chicago Bulls, and James Jones of the Phoenix Suns. Last year’s winner, Jones made a lot of important moves in the offseason. Easily the most important move he made; Jones re-signed Chris Paul after a tremendous season with the Suns. He also re-signed Cameron Payne, who was going from team to team and spent time in the G-League before signing with Phoenix. Finally, he signed big man JaVale McGee, who has had a great season so far. One thing that may take away from Jones’ odds is not signing DeAndre Ayton to an extension. In Cleveland, Koby Altman made many solid moves for the Cavs in the offseason. Two important moves include the drafting of Evan Mobley and the trade for Ricky Rubio. The Cavs have shocked many by being as good as they are this season so far. For the first time in a long time, the Cavs are good without LeBron James, and they owe that to Altman. In Chicago, Arturas Karnisovas has given the Bulls a new life while insisting on not settling for mediocrity. Important moves include the sign-and-trades of Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan, signing Alex Caruso, and drafting Ayo Dosunmo. The Bulls currently sit in first in the East, a spot no journalist or NBA personality predicted. The Bulls will be a contender in the East for years to come and that’s because of Karnisovas.

Winner: Arturas Karnisovas

Runner-Up: James Jones

Defensive Player of the Year

In the last handful of years, there are only two players that have realistic odds of winning Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert of the Utah Jazz and Draymond Green of the Golden State Warriors. Both make great cases to win the award. Utah and Golden State would suffer on the defensive end without their respective players (something we are seeing right now with Green out for the Warriors). Both players have seen slight increases and decreases depending on their stats. Green’s rebounding and blocks have slightly increased while his steals have slightly decreased. For Gobert, his rebounding has increased (currently the league leader in rebounds) as well as his blocks, but his steals have decreased. When it comes to this NBA award, games will matter between the two. With Draymond currently out and the Warriors suffering on the defensive end because of, this is easily Gobert’s award to win.

Winner: Rudy Gobert

Runner-Up: Draymond Green

Sixth Man of the Year

Now we start to get into awards that have numerous contenders. Sixth Man of the Year has key contenders in Jordan Clarkson of the Jazz, Montrezl Harrell of the Wizards, Tyler Herro of the Heat, and Kelly Oubre Jr. of the Hornets. A name like Jordan Poole could also be considered if he finished the rest of the season coming off the bench. In the 37 games he’s played this season, he’s started 31 of those games. Last year’s winner, Clarkson is the only contender to come off the bench in every game he has played so far. The problem is that all his stats have dropped across the board. His stats haven’t dropped tremendously, and he’s been a key to the success of the Jazz. With the Wizards, Montrezl Harrell has improved after coming from the Lakers in the offseason. Currently averaging splits of 14.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 2.2 APG, Harrel was important to the Wizards’ early-season success. In Charlotte, Kelly Oubre has improved in some respects while dropping off in others since coming over from the Warriors. He is currently averaging splits of 16.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 1.2 APG. He has been tremendous off the bench (only starting 10 games this season), pairing nicely alongside LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges. For the first time in a long time, Oubre looks like he’s found his role. In Miami, Tyler Herro has improved year after year. After averaging splits of 15.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 3.4 APG last season, he’s now averaging 20.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 4.1 APG. Herro has looked like an NBA All-Star at points this season and should have the best odds of winning. Like Oubre, he’s started 10 games this season, but with players constantly going in and out of the lineup, it’s likely those games will not factor in at all.

Winner: Tyler Herro

Runner-Up: Jordan Clarkson

Rookie of the Year

In the Rookie of the Year conversation, there’s a case for at least five or six players. #1 overall pick. Cade Cunningham is currently averaging 15.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 5.3 APG in the 34 games he’s played for the Pistons so far, but the Pistons are 10-32 (at the time of this writing). #2 overall pick Jalen Green has had a similar season so far, averaging splits of 15.0 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 2.2 APG. The Rockets are currently 14-32, but the team has made a small splash in the last month. #4 pick Scottie Barnes of the Toronto Raptors is in a similar position, averaging 14.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, and 3.5 APG. Barnes was a part of the reason the Raptors were in the top tier of the East in the early part of the season. #6 overall pick Josh Giddy is another well-rounded rookie that deserves some attention, currently averaging 11.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 6.3 APG. The Thunder currently sit at 14th in the West, just a game ahead of the Rockets. One player that deserves to be in the conversation is Ayo Dosunmo in Chicago. While he’s only averaging 8.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 2.7 APG in his last 10 games, he’s been a key for the Bulls off the bench, especially when guarding the opponent’s best players. If anyone truly stands out for ROY, it would be the #3 pick, Evan Mobley. He’s averaging 15.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 2.7 APG while the Cavs have been a surprise for many this season. There is no doubt that Cleveland would not be where they are without Mobley.

Winner: Evan Mobley

Runner-Up: Cade Cunnigham

Most Improved Player

Same as Rookie of the Year, there are many names to be considered for Most Improved. Jordan Poole and Tyler Herro were both names to be considered early in the year, with both increasing their scoring by 5.0 PPG. Poole was a key for the Warriors while Klay was out but has fallen off during the season while Herro has been a key for the Heat with multiple players missing games. Dejounte Murray of the Spurs has been a standout recently, jumping from 15.7 PPG to 19.1 PPG. He has begun to look like he could be the future franchise piece for San Antonio. Miles Bridges has been huge for the Hornets this season, jumping from 12.7 PPG to 19.6 PPG. Bridges has been amazing alongside LaMelo Ball in Charlotte and the team would not succeed without him. In addition, his improvement will be huge when he becomes a free agent this summer. There’s one player who stands above the rest for most Improved: Ja Morant. Ja has been amazing this season with his name being thrown around in the early weeks of the season as a potential NBA MVP. Even with a short-term injury in December, Morant came back looking like a star jumping from 19.1 to 24.4 PPG. That’s just one of the reasons Ja should win most improved. He’s improved as a leader and has led the Grizzlies to the fourth seed in the West. When playoff time comes, Ja will put up a fight against whatever teams the Grizzlies face. This award is one of the very few awards that may have already been decided.

Winner: Ja Morant

Runner-Up: Miles Bridges

Most Valuable Player

This is the award everyone loves, the award everyone talks about as soon as the current season ends. Honestly, this is the toughest award to determine. Last season, Nikola Jokic took home his first MVP award after a tremendous season with the Nuggets. Jokic has had a season like last season, averaging over 25.0 PPG and 11.0 RPG. When it comes to advanced stats, Jokic has improved in every category. The only thing going against Jokic is the team record. At just above .500 right now, Jokic has the worst record of all potential MVPs. Luckily for Jokic, there have been a couple of players on NBA teams with bad records who have won the award. Last season’s runner-up was Joel Embiid. Embiid’s scoring has dropped off just a tiny bit but has had a season like last year’s. The main thing going against Embiid is everything going on in Philly. The team currently sits in the fourth seed, but that’s most likely as high all they’ll be for the rest of the season. Another name in the conversation is Kevin Durant. Durant has averaged over 29.0 PPG this season and has improved every stat. Durant has led the Nets to the third-best record in the East. The only thing against Durant is the fact his most recent injury will have him out for at least four weeks minimum. As previously mentioned, Ja Morant was another name that has been in and out of the conversation. Another player on a top team is DeMar DeRozan. He was doubted prior to the season and has proved everyone wrong so far. He is currently averaging 25.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 4.8 APG on the first seed Chicago Bulls. The one main thing going against DeMar is that Chicago might not be the best team in the East by the end of the season. The player to mention is Giannis Antetokounmpo. Winning two out of the last three MVP awards, Giannis continues to grow as a superstar and champion. He’s been steady the last two seasons, averaging over 28.0 PPG, 6.0 APG, and over 11.0 RPG. The Bucks are currently fourth in the East and can easily finish the season at the top. Many doubted the Bucks to repeat as NBA champions as soon as they won the championship, having teams like the Nets and Lakers with higher odds. The only thing going against Giannis is how steady he has been and voter fatigue. When it’s all said and done, this is an extremely hard award to choose.

Winner: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Runner-Up: Nikola Jokic

Third Place: Kevin Durant