Photo Credit: Gillette Stadium
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The New England Patriots face another huge AFC East test in Week 4. This time, they travel to Buffalo for a matchup with the undefeated Bills. The Patriots enter Sunday at 1-2 after a brutal 35-6 loss to Jacksonville. Meanwhile, Buffalo sits at 3-0 after beating the Los Angeles Chargers. The game kicks off Sunday, October 4, at 1 p.m. ET. Highmark Stadium will host the Patriots for their first regular-season game there. Buffalo opened its new stadium this season. The Bills have already won their first two regular-season games there.
A Rivalry Filled with History
The Patriots and Bills have played 133 times heading into this matchup. New England owns an 80-52-1 advantage in the series. The Patriots also hold 39 wins in their last 52 regular-season meetings. That stretch dates back to 2000. However, Buffalo has made this rivalry much more competitive recently. The teams split their two meetings last season. New England won 23-20 in Buffalo on October 5, 2025. Buffalo then answered with a 35-31 victory at Gillette Stadium. That first matchup ended a four-game Patriots losing streak in Buffalo. It also gave New England a huge divisional victory. Now, the Patriots return to Western New York with a very different challenge. The Bills have started this season unbeaten. The Patriots, meanwhile, need to fix several problems quickly.
Josh Allen Leads Buffalo
Josh Allen remains the centerpiece of Buffalo’s offense. Through three games, he has thrown for 786 yards. Allen has also thrown five touchdowns and two interceptions. He has added six rushing touchdowns during Buffalo’s hot start. That combination makes Allen extremely difficult to defend. New England cannot focus exclusively on stopping his passing. The Patriots must also contain James Cook. The Bills running back has produced 346 rushing yards already. Cook averages an impressive 6.0 yards per carry. He has also scored twice this season. Dalton Kincaid provides another major matchup problem. The tight end leads Buffalo with 14 receptions for 263 yards. D.J. Moore has also made an immediate impact after joining Buffalo. He has 11 catches for 167 yards and one touchdown. Meanwhile, Gregory Rousseau has become a nightmare for opposing offensive lines. He leads the NFL with six sacks and three forced fumbles.
Patriots Need Drake Maye to Bounce Back
Drake Maye enters Week 4 after one of his roughest performances as an NFL quarterback. Maye threw for 585 yards through the first three games. However, he has only one touchdown and six interceptions. He also owns a 63.8 percent completion rate. His turnover problems have hurt New England throughout the opening weeks. The Patriots cannot afford another turnover-heavy afternoon. Buffalo’s defense has allowed plenty of yards this season. However, New England’s offense ranks 31st in scoring. The Patriots average just 12 points per game. Buffalo averages 33.7 points per contest. That gap creates enormous pressure on Maye and the Patriots offense. Rhamondre Stevenson also needs to become more involved. He has 116 rushing yards through three games. Hunter Henry could also play an important role against Buffalo’s defense. The Patriots need reliable short-area targets for Maye.
New England’s Defense Can Keep It Close
There is one major reason to believe the Patriots can compete. Their defense has played significantly better than their offense. New England allows just 17 points per game. The Patriots rank fifth in total defense and second against the pass. That could create problems for Buffalo if New England generates pressure. The Patriots have seven sacks through three games. Buffalo has allowed only eight sacks during that span. New England also needs to force Allen into difficult situations. Buffalo committed five turnovers against the Chargers last week. The Chargers failed to capitalize on those mistakes. The Patriots cannot make the same mistake.
What Decides This Game?
Turnovers could determine everything in Buffalo. The Patriots currently own a minus-five turnover differential. Buffalo sits at minus-two. New England cannot give Allen extra possessions. The Patriots also cannot allow Cook to control the game early. Most importantly, Maye needs to protect the football. Buffalo’s offense creates too much pressure when opponents give away possessions. New England needs long drives and consistent execution. The Patriots also need their defense to keep Buffalo below its season scoring average.
The Prediction
This game feels much closer than the records suggest. New England has struggled offensively, but its defense can make things uncomfortable. Buffalo also showed vulnerability against the Chargers last Sunday. Still, the Bills have too many offensive weapons to ignore. Allen can hurt defenses with his arm and his legs. Cook has established himself as one of the league’s most productive backs. Kincaid also gives Buffalo another difficult matchup. For New England, the formula remains simple. Protect Maye, run the football, and force Buffalo into third-and-long situations.
The Patriots have already beaten Buffalo in Buffalo once during the past year. Therefore, they know they can win there. However, Buffalo enters this matchup playing with more offensive consistency. I expect New England to compete early before Buffalo creates separation. The Bills should win a competitive AFC East battle and move to 4-0. The Patriots will leave Buffalo with another reminder of how quickly this division can punish mistakes.
This is or makes or break week for Drake Maye because they are up against the Bills.
Author Profile
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Bradley Walker (VP) and Head of our Florida operations for NGSC Sports, bringing extensive experience across collegiate, professional, and amateur athletics. His coverage spans USF Athletics, including football, baseball, lacrosse, and softball, as well as University of Tampa baseball.
Bradley also provides coverage of minor league baseball with the Clearwater Threshers and Major League Baseball with the Tampa Bay Rays. On the national stage, he covers college football bowl games and conference championship matchups, along with premier golf events across the PGA Tour, LIV Golf, and LPGA Tour.
In addition to his reporting work, Bradley is the play-by-play announcer for Pinellas Park High School Patriots football, lending his voice and insight to Friday night lights.
He is also an active podcast host and contributor, serving as a host on The Walker Report, where he delivers in-depth sports analysis, interviews, and coverage across multiple levels of competition.
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