WNBA Second-Half Preview: Can Anyone Stop Minnesota, and Who Is a Real Title Threat?

The first half of the 2026 WNBA season saw the Minnesota Lynx finish with the league’s best record, all without their MVP, Napheesa Collier. The Golden State Valkyries have turned into a legit title contender, while the New York Liberty struggle to stay afloat.

As the league emerges from the All-Star break, the championship race is tighter than ever—but the blueprint for how the final two months will play out is beginning to take shape.

1. Minnesota Lynx: Napheesa Collier’s Return Locks Up the #1 Spot

If the rest of the league was hoping the Minnesota Lynx (22–6) would cool down, those hopes evaporated the moment Napheesa Collier took the floor.

Minnesota already built the league’s best record and highest offensive efficiency without their superstar forward for the first two months. Paired with All-Star rookie sensation Olivia Miles, Collier’s return provides elite rim protection, secondary playmaking, and interior scoring.

With a full-strength lineup, head coach Cheryl Reeve’s squad isn’t just maintaining the #1 seed—they look like an absolute juggernaut poised to lock up home-field advantage all the way through the WNBA Finals.

2. Title Contenders or Pretenders? Aces, Valkyries, and Wings

Las Vegas Aces (18–8): Can A’ja Wilson Lead the Repeat?

The defending 2025 champion Las Vegas Aces sit comfortably at 18–8. A’ja Wilson is putting together another MVP-caliber campaign, leading the WNBA in scoring (26.1 PPG) and win shares. While their regular-season record isn’t as dominant as Minnesota’s, discount the Aces at your own peril. Las Vegas knows how to flip the switch come September, and as long as Wilson is healthy, they remain a top-tier contender to repeat as champions.

Golden State Valkyries (19–8): Shocking the WNBA

In just their second season, the Golden State Valkyries are officially title favorites led by head coach Natalie Nakase and a relentless, defense-first rotation featuring Gabby Williams and Tiffany Hayes. Golden State sits at 19–8—holding the #2 seed in the entire league.

• Are they real title threats? Yes. Their defense allows a league-low 76.4 points per game. In a short playoff series, elite defense and veteran grit travel. They aren’t just a feel-good story; they are a legitimate championship threat.

Dallas Wings (18–9): High-Octane Offense

Sitting right behind Golden State at 18–9, the Dallas Wings boast one of the most explosive scoring offenses in basketball (90.2 PPG). However, their championship viability will depend entirely on their defensive consistency in crunch time. They can outscore anyone on a given night, but beatable perimeter defense keeps them one step behind Minnesota and Las Vegas in a five-game series.

3. The Eastern Conference War: Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream

The East is turning into a two-team race for the top spot between two young, dynamic squads.

The Indiana Fever (17–10) currently hold a half-game lead over the Atlanta Dream (16–10) for the top seed in the East. Indiana’s relentless, fast-break pace makes them electric, but Atlanta’s physical defense gives them the edge in half-court grinding games. Expect this battle for Eastern Conference home-court advantage to go down to the final weekend of the regular season.

4. What Happens to the New York Liberty?

• Record: 15–12 (3rd in East, 7th Overall)
• The Big Question: Can first-year head coach Chris DeMarco turn things around?

After parting ways with their previous coaching staff, New York hired former NBA assistant Chris DeMarco to lead the franchise into its 30th anniversary season. The transition hasn’t been seamless. At 15–12, the Liberty have struggled with defensive consistency and bench depth, not to mention dealing with all kinds of injuries.

Will they fire their coach?

No. DeMarco is midway through his first season implementing a new system, and management remains committed to the long-term vision.

Are they dead in the water or capable of a turnaround?

They are far from dead in the water, but their championship window for 2026 has narrowed. New York still features elite firepower with Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. If they can tighten their defensive rotation over the next month and get healthy for the stretch run, they are a scary lower-seed opponent that no top seed will want to face in Round 1—even if a deep Finals run looks out of reach this year.

Second-Half Predictions

1. Top Seed Locked: Minnesota finishes with the best overall record in the WNBA.
2. East Champion: Indiana holds off Atlanta to secure the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
3. The Finals Matchup: A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces clash with Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx in a heavyweight Finals showdown.