NBA Swing: Does Jayson Tatum’s Return Shake Up the East?

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Many teams have reached the 60-game mark of the 2025-26 NBA season, and the league is just over a month away from the 2026 playoffs. In the Eastern Conference, Detroit leads the conference at 45-15. The Boston Celtics and New York Knicks sit right behind Detroit as the second and third seeds, respectively. Boston has a 41-21 record, while the Knicks are a game behind them with a 40-23 record.

For Boston, they have defied expectations given to them prior to the beginning of the season after moving on from several championship players and the loss of their young superstar in the playoffs last season. Jayson Tatum is expected to make his season debut against the Dallas Mavericks tonight—just 10 months after rupturing his right Achilles tendon in the 2025 playoffs

Before the injury, the 28-year-old was one of the best players in the league, averaging 26.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, and 6.0 APG. He would lead the 2024-25 Celtics in points, rebounds, and assists. In Tatum’s absence, the Celtics would get off to a slow start but would quickly bounce back. Boston’s rebound to the second seed would be led by Jaylen Brown, who has had an MVP-caliber season as the clear #1 option. Brown’s stats would jump from 22.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 4.5 APG last season to 28.9 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 5.0 APG.

This season has also seen several guards take more weight on their shoulders, with both Derrick White and Payton Pritchard improving across multiple statistical categories. At the time of this writing, Boston holds the league’s second-best offense and seventh-best defense. Boston also currently has the league’s second-best net rating at 8.0.

With the return of Tatum, playing time will depend on minutes restrictions and general recovery post-injury. Tatum had previously expressed his uncertainty when it comes to returning this season, but has also expressed that he expects to come back as a starter.

Heading into the final stretch of the season, Boston does have one of the hardest remaining schedules. Notable games remaining include games against the Cleveland Cavaliers, San Antonio Spurs, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York, two games against the red-hot Charlotte Hornets, and two games against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

For Tatum, there is no telling how he will look coming back from an Achilles injury. While most players have not been able to return to the level they were at pre-Achilles injury, there have been a few exceptions. Names like Dominique Wilkins, Wesley Matthews, and most recently, Kevin Durant, have returned at the same level or a better level than before. Durant would rupture his Achilles tendon in his age 31 season, averaging 27.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.1 APG before the injury, and has averaged 27.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 5.1 APG since returning from his Achilles rupture.

Having ruptured his Achilles tendon a few years younger than Durant and having surgery quickly after suffering the injury, the expectation is that Tatum will return at or near 100%. If he returns at the level, the Celtics could instantly become a legitimate championship contender. As of March 4th, DraftKings has the Celtics with fourth best odds to win the championship and the highest odds of any Eastern Conference team. With a healthy Tatum, Boston would be on the same level as Detroit, New York, and Cleveland.

While there may be some adjusting with Jayson Tatum’s return, the last month of the season will allow him to get back into the groove of things ahead of the playoffs. With Tatum, Boston has once again become a threat to the league and very well could be a dark horse championship contender.