Super Bowl LX Preview: Why the Patriots Win & Why the Seahawks Win

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As Super Bowl LX kicks off today at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, the NFL finds itself in an era of improbable turnarounds. Two 14–3 squads that few picked to be here back in August now face off for the Lombardi Trophy. Both teams enter on massive winning streaks—nine for Seattle, six for New England—and each has a distinct, compelling path to victory.

Why the Seahawks Win: “The Complete Juggernaut”

Seattle enters as a 4.5-point favorite for one simple reason: they are arguably the most balanced team in the league. While the Patriots have relied on defensive grit to survive the playoffs, the Seahawks have been a buzzsaw.

The League’s No. 1 Defense: Led by head coach Mike Macdonald, Seattle’s defense is built to suffocate young quarterbacks. With All-Pros like Devon Witherspoon and Leonard Williams, they generate pressure with just four rushers (ranking 28th in blitz rate but top-5 in pressure). If they keep Drake Maye in the pocket and eliminate his “escape hatch” scrambling, the game could get ugly for New England early.
The “Ghosts” are Gone: Sam Darnold has completed the ultimate career resurrection. Unlike the young version of himself that famously “saw ghosts” against New England, this Darnold is decisive and protected. He hasn’t thrown an interception in three games and has the ultimate security blanket in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards this year.
Homerun Threat: While New England has a great run defense, Kenneth Walker III only needs one crease. His ability to turn a three-yard gain into a 60-yard touchdown is the “X-factor” that can break the Patriots’ spirits.

Why the Patriots Win: “The Coaching Masterclass”

New England’s path to victory is narrower but proven. Under Mike Vrabel (the 2026 Coach of the Year), the Patriots have mastered the art of “winning ugly” against elite competition.

Disguise and Disrupt: The defense specializes in pre-snap confusion. If they can bait Darnold into holding the ball for an extra half-second, their interior rushers—Christian Barmore and Milton Williams—can force the turnovers that have fueled New England’s six-game streak.
The Drake Maye Factor: Maye hasn’t been statistically perfect in the playoffs (55.8% completion), but he has been the ultimate winner. His ability to pick up 40–50 yards with his legs when a play breaks down is the one thing Mike Macdonald’s disciplined defense has struggled to contain. If Maye can provide “back-breaking” scrambles on 3rd down, he can keep Seattle’s offense off the field.
Line of Scrimmage Parity: The Patriots’ offensive line, led by rookie Will Campbell, has been under fire, but they’ve played their best in the biggest moments. If they can provide a clean pocket for just three seconds, veterans like Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry are savvy enough to find the gaps in Seattle’s zone.

Statistical Snapshot

Category	Seattle Seahawks	New England Patriots
Record	16–3 (incl. playoffs)	17–3 (incl. playoffs)
Offensive Rank	3rd in Total Yards	9th in Total Yards
Defensive Rank	1st in Scoring Defense	5th in Scoring Defense
Key Weapon	Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)	Drake Maye (QB)
Coaching Edge	Defensive Structure	Game Management

The “X-Factor” Matchup: JSN vs. Christian Gonzalez

The game may truly be decided when Sam Darnold looks for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez has established himself as a “lockdown” force, but the Seahawks often move JSN into the slot to avoid him. Expect to see a “group effort” from the Patriots’ secondary, including Marcus Jones and Carlton Davis III, to try to keep the league’s yardage leader under 100 yards.