The Duel in December: Unpacking the 2025 NFL MVP Race

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As the 2025 NFL regular season enters its final week, the race for the Associated Press Most Valuable Player (MVP) award has narrowed into a high-stakes showdown between a legendary veteran seeking his first crown and a second-year sensation rewriting the record books. With the playoffs looming, every throw in Week 17 and 18 carries the weight of history.

The Frontrunner: Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)

Current Odds: -250 (Favorite)
The Case: At 37 years old, Stafford is playing the best football of his Hall of Fame-caliber career. Leading the NFL with 40 touchdown passes and over 4,100 passing yards, he has been the steady hand behind a Rams offense that has remained elite despite a rotating cast of offensive linemen.
Narrative: Voters often reward “overdue” legends. Stafford has the stats, the wins (11-4), and the highlight reel to finally secure the one major individual trophy missing from his shelf.
The Crucial Moment: All eyes are on Monday Night Football tonight (Dec 29) as the Rams host the Falcons. A dominant performance tonight could effectively “ice” the award for Stafford before the season finale.

The Challenger: Drake Maye (New England Patriots)

Current Odds: +180
The Case: If Stafford represents the old guard, Drake Maye is the undisputed leader of the new. The second-year QB has been a revelation, spearheading the Patriots to an AFC East title. He is coming off a Week 17 masterclass against the Jets, where he threw for 256 yards and 5 touchdowns with a 90% completion rate.
The “It” Factor: Maye has nearly 4,000 passing yards and has shown a dual-threat capability that makes the New England offense impossible to scheme against. If the Patriots clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed next week, the “Most Valuable” argument for Maye might become undeniable.

The “Superman” Lurking: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)

Current Odds: +3000
The Case: The reigning MVP (2024) is putting up numbers that are arguably better than his winning campaign last year. Allen has accounted for 39 total touchdowns (25 passing, 14 rushing).
The Hurdle: Despite his “Superman” performances, 10 interceptions and a few high-profile losses have seen his odds slip. To win back-to-back, Allen would likely need a historic Week 18 performance and a Stafford/Maye collapse.

The “King” of the Wildcards: Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens)

While the MVP is almost exclusively a “Quarterback Award,” Derrick Henry has forced his way into the fringes of the conversation. On Saturday, Dec 27, Henry demolished the Packers for 216 yards and 4 touchdowns, bringing his season totals to 16 rushing TDs and nearly 1,500 yards. In a year where no QB is head-and-shoulders above the rest, Henry is the ultimate “chaos candidate.”

MVP Statistical Comparison (As of Dec 29, 2025)

Player	Team	Pass TDs	Rush TDs	Pass Yards	INTs	Team Record
Matthew Stafford	LAR	40	1	4,179	8	11–4*
Drake Maye	NE	25	6	3,947	7	12–4
Josh Allen	BUF	25	14	3,668	10	11–5
Lamar Jackson	BAL	21	5	3,120	5	10–6

*Rams play Monday Night Football tonight (Week 17).

What to Watch For:

Stafford’s MNF Performance: If he throws for 3+ TDs tonight against Atlanta, he likely enters Week 18 as an overwhelming favorite.
The Patriots Finale: If Drake Maye outduels the Dolphins next week and locks up the AFC’s top seed, he could steal the trophy at the finish line.