Rivalry Week: Playoff Picture Defined by Mega Matchups and Tiebreaker Drama

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The penultimate College Football Playoff (CFP) Rankings were released after Week 13, setting the stage for a dramatic Rivalry Week that will likely finalize the 12-team field. With the top four seeds firmly entrenched, the focus shifts to the two-loss teams vying for a home game and the final automatic bids.

The Unmoved Top Four and First-Round Byes

The top four spots, which grant a crucial first-round bye in the expanded 12-team format, remained intact for the third consecutive week. These teams are guaranteed a week off before hosting a Quarterfinal game in the New Year’s Six bowls.

Rank	Team	Record	Key Rationale
1	Ohio State	11-0	Dominant defense and wins over quality opponents.
2	Indiana	11-0	Undefeated record includes a key non-conference win over Oregon.
3	Texas A&M	11-0	Sole undefeated SEC team; Notre Dame win carrying weight.
4	Georgia	10-1	Only one loss (to Alabama) and strong overall résumé.

The key takeaway is that the Big Ten and SEC currently hold all four byes, signaling the committee’s respect for their depth and quality wins.

The At-Large Scramble: Home Game Implications

Ranks 5 through 8 are pivotal, as these teams are projected to host a first-round playoff game on campus. The committee made a significant adjustment here, rewarding a signature victory.

Oregon (10-1) jumped Ole Miss (10-1) to claim the No. 6 spot after its convincing double-digit victory over a ranked USC team. The committee prioritized the recent quality win, pushing the Ducks ahead of the Rebels, who were idle.
Texas Tech (10-1) stayed put at No. 5, still benefiting from a strong overall Big 12 resume despite a loss to Arizona State.
Oklahoma (9-2) moved up to No. 8 after a solid win over Missouri, firmly establishing the Sooners as the highest-ranked two-loss team, positioning them to host a game if they can win their finale.
Notre Dame (9-2) and Alabama (9-2) round out the top 10, needing help to secure a top-eight spot but positioned well for an at-large bid.

The Final Auto-Bids and Chaos Scenarios

The bottom of the 12-team bracket is determined by the five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked at-large teams.

ACC Auto-Bid: Miami (9-2) holds the highest rank among the ACC teams at No. 12, currently projecting as the conference champion auto-bid. However, the committee’s decision to rank Miami ahead of Utah was controversial, as the Hurricanes are unlikely to play in the ACC Championship Game (SMU vs. Virginia is projected), meaning they will likely need to earn an at-large bid, or hope the chaos allows them to be the highest-ranked ACC champion.
Group of Five Spot: Tulane (9-2) holds the No. 24 spot, projecting as the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion. Winning the American Conference title game will secure the final spot in the 12-team bracket.

The committee’s final rankings were also influenced by Michigan (9-2) moving up three spots to No. 15 ahead of their monumental rivalry game against No. 1 Ohio State, a move seen by some as potentially setting the stage for a jump into the playoff picture should they achieve the upset.

Rivalry Week: Playoff Elimination Games

This final regular-season weekend features five head-to-head matchups between ranked teams, with the outcomes acting as de facto play-in games for the CFP:

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 15 Michigan: The Game is a must-win for Michigan’s playoff hopes and a necessary statement for Ohio State to lock up the No. 1 overall seed.
No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 16 Texas: The renewal of the Lone Star Showdown will have national title implications for the Aggies and will determine if the Longhorns can earn a top-15 final ranking.
No. 12 Miami vs. No. 23 Pittsburgh: Miami needs a decisive win to maintain its ranking and stay in the at-large conversation.
No. 13 Vanderbilt vs. No. 19 Tennessee: An elimination game for the two-loss Commodores hoping to make a late surge into the top 10.

The results this weekend will undoubtedly lead to further debate over the final seven at-large spots before the selection committee issues its final rankings following the conference championship games.