The State of the WNBA MVP Race

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The WNBA MVP race has a certain rhythm to it. For much of the season, a frontrunner builds a case so strong it feels like an inevitability. Then, in the final weeks, a challenger mounts a surge so powerful it throws the whole thing into question. This year, that story is playing out in spectacular fashion with two of the league’s titans.

For a long time, the MVP was Napheesa Collier’s to lose. She was the driving force behind the league-leading Minnesota Lynx, a team that has looked unstoppable for stretches. Collier’s game has been a model of efficiency and well-rounded dominance. She’s been putting up career-best numbers across the board, proving herself as both an offensive weapon and a defensive anchor. Her performance, especially on a team that has been running away with the top seed, made her the obvious choice for many.

The Challenger

But while Collier was on the mend from a mid-season injury, A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces were getting to work. After a sluggish start, Wilson put the team on her back and willed them to a historic winning streak. She has been a force of nature, leading the league in scoring and blocks, and her numbers have only gotten better as the season wore on. What makes Wilson’s case so compelling is the significant impact she has had on her team’s turnaround. The Aces went from looking vulnerable to being a legitimate title contender, and that shift is a direct result of Wilson’s leadership and singular play.

The Overlooked

While the discussion is largely a two-person race, it’s worth a moment to appreciate the season Alyssa Thomas has had. She’s once again flirting with averaging a triple-double and has set a new record for triple-doubles in a single season. In almost any other year, her numbers and all-around excellence would make her a lock for the award. But in a season where two players are putting up all-time performances, Thomas finds herself on the outside looking in—a testament not to her own shortcomings, but to the extraordinary quality of the players ahead of her.

The Final Verdict

So, who wins? On one hand, you have Collier, the best player on the league’s best team, who was nearly flawless before her injury. On the other hand, you have Wilson, a reigning MVP who came roaring back from a slow start and changed the course of her team’s season. The choice for voters will come down to whether they value sustained brilliance and team success or an awe-inspiring, game-changing finish.