WNBA: Round 1 Playoff Matchups

Format & Key Changes

The 2025 playoffs begin on September 14.

First round is a best‐of‐three format.

Semifinals become best‐of‐five, and the Finals have expanded to best‐of‐seven (a change this season).

Final Standings & Seeds

Here are the eight teams that made the playoffs, in seeding order, with some context:

Matchups

Here are the first‐round matchups:

(1) Minnesota Lynx vs. (8) Golden State Valkyries

(2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (7) Seattle Storm

(3) Atlanta Dream vs. (6) Indiana Fever

(4) Phoenix Mercury vs. (5) New York Liberty

Key Players & Storylines

Here are the big narratives to watch:

Napheesa Collier’s MVP push
Collier has had a sensational season for the Lynx. She became one of the few WNBA players to post a 50-40-90 season (field goal %, three-point %, free throw %). She’s also been a scoring leader (≈ 23 ppg) and is now expected to lead Minnesota in its quest to finally finish the job and get the championship.

Las Vegas Aces’ Late Surge
The Aces had ups and downs but closed strong, riding a 16-game winning streak into the playoffs. A’ja Wilson is—again—a prominent candidate for MVP. Their depth is being tested, but confidence is high.

New York Liberty’s health & chemistry
As reigning champs, they came into the year with expectations, made some key additions (e.g., Emma Meesseman) to boost depth. But injuries and some inconsistency have made their playoff seeding and path more precarious.

Under the radar: Expansion team + injuries

Golden State Valkyries are already making history, as noted above. How will they handle playoff pressure?

Indiana, in particular, has had to cope without Caitlin Clark for large stretches. Their ability to stay competitive and possibly pull off an upset will depend on who steps up.

Matchup concerns: Bigs & inside play
Teams with strong frontcourts (Minnesota, Las Vegas, Phoenix) will look to exploit teams that are less size-dominant. New York’s size vs. stretch-players, Phoenix’s new roster dynamics, etc. These battles down low may decide many of the series.

What Could Decide the Champion

Here are some X-factors and what could make or break teams:

Depth & injuries: With longer series (especially in Finals moving to best-of-seven), having a deep roster is more important than ever. One or two injuries could swamp a team.

Momentum vs experience: The Aces have momentum, the Lynx have experience and more consistent performance. Liberty have a championship pedigree. Can expansion or lower seeds have enough to shock?

Home court: Top seeds like Minnesota get the benefit of more home games. For Phoenix/New York, those swing games could matter, especially in a 3-game first round.

Adjustments & coaching: Coaches who can adapt between games will matter a lot—matchups will shift, defensive schemes, and bench usage. Also, how teams handle officiating, pressure, and off nights.

Psychological edge: Minnesota’s loss in the 2024 Finals may serve as extra motivation. Reigning champs Liberty will want to defend, but with pressure. Underdogs have less to lose.

Predictions (Risks & Upsets)

While anything can happen:

Minnesota Lynx are the favorites. If Collier continues her level and the team stays healthy, they look most poised.

Las Vegas Aces are a strong second pick; their hot streak could carry deep.

New York Liberty are dangerous if they can stay consistent and avoid further injuries.

Upset watch: Indiana over Atlanta could be possible if they get hot; Golden State might steal one against Minnesota, depending on matchups (especially if home court pressures kick in)