NBA Swing: What Went Wrong in Miami this Offseason?

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Coming off a Finals loss following a legendary eighth-seed run to get there, everything was looking up for the Miami Heat. Things were looking even better when superstar guard Damian Lillard requested a trade and made it clear his preferred destination was Miami. Three months later, Damian Lillard is a member of the Milwaukee Bucks, they lost several key members of their Finals run, and potentially have ruined their relationship with one or more of their big three. With the start of the 2023-24 season just weeks away, people are asking what went wrong in Miami.

Miami’s offseason starts with and focuses on Damian Lillard. Miami built their entire offseason on Lillard’s trade request to Miami. Making it clear he wanted to go to Miami only and going as far as his agent telling teams not to trade for him because he’d just request a trade to Miami, the Heat looked like the only true suitors for Dame. The main package being discussed between Miami and Portland revolved around former Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro, several draft picks and swaps, and promising young players. Portland was never interested in Herro with some reports noting that Portland had even asked for Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo at one point or another. Reports following Lillard’s trade to Milwaukee suggested a trade with Miami never got any traction in the first place. With Lillard being Miami’s focus, they did not go after any notable free agents. While the Heat were named among teams to be interested in potential trades for stars including Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, most reports suggested otherwise. When Portland was looking to trade guard Jrue Holiday after acquiring him in the Lillard trade, Miami was rumored to be interested with Portland not entertaining their offer. With an arms race at the top of the Eastern Conference, it’ll be difficult for Miami to compete with other teams, whether it’s the regular season or playoffs.

A partial consequence of Lillard’s trade request, Miami also lost several important pieces of the Finals roster. The first player to go was Gabe Vincent, who left for the Los Angeles Lakers. Vincent had a strong postseason, starting all 22 games while averaging 12.7 PPG, and 3.5 APG. He was a pivotal part of Miami’s run, especially with Tyler Herro missing the rest of the playoffs following a hand injury in the first game of the playoffs. An undrafted player who built his game in the G-League and with Miami, Vincent became one of the most desirable free agents with his recent performances.

Less than 24 hours later, Miami would lose Max Strus to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Strus has a solid postseason, averaging 9.3 PPG and 3.6 RPG. His performances would drop off as Miami went deeper into their playoff run but became another desirable free agent for what he could provide. Miami would lose or move on from several other free agents including Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller but were able to re-sign Kevin Love and bring in Thomas Bryant and R.J. Hampton, among others.

Another casualty of the Dame trade saga was Miami’s relationship with Tyler Herro. Having been the main piece discussed in the Dame trade, Herro spent the summer in trade rumors. Herro would remove all mention of Miami from his social media accounts, but a trade never occurred. With Herro set to remain in Miami for the time being, he is likely to be a starter when the season starts. Herro addressed the trade rumors earlier this week, saying that the rumors this offseason felt more real compared to previous offseasons and that he wants to play where he is wanted. With the relationship between Herro and the Heat organization being fractured by the trade rumors, there is no telling if they can be repaired, or if he could be traded at some point during the season.

Looking ahead, there are a lot of questions for the Heat. They were bottom five on the offensive end while having a top-10 defense. Their top star, Jimmy Butler is 34 and may only have a few years left in his prime. He’s stated in the past that he wants to retire with Miami, and that could be the end of his contract in 2026. Surrounding Butler and Bam Adebayo are a mix of young talent and aging veterans. Kyle Lowry is nearing the end of his career, putting up the lowest points, rebounds, and assists in a decade. Struggling with injuries last season, Lowry will likely have a lesser role this upcoming season. Kevin Love also put a career low in points and rebounds after being traded to the Heat.

With teams like Milwaukee and Boston bolstering their rosters and several young teams set to take a leap, Miami may have a rough season. Most sports betting outlets set Miami’s over/under win totals around 46-48 wins, but that was with the expectation Damian Lillard would be in Miami. Losing key members of last season’s team and other teams being better, it’s possible Miami could end up in the play-in tournament like they did last season or miss the playoffs completely. The good news for Heat fans is that both Butler and Adebayo are under contract for several more years. Kyle Lowry’s nearly $30M contract will be coming off the books after this season. Another good thing for Miami is they will always be a free-agent destination. With the rumors of several superstars being frustrated, we could see another superstar potentially join the Heat in the future. For now, Miami will have an uphill battle following a long and disappointing offseason.