NBA Swing: Eight Win Totals for the 2023-24 NBA Season

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With the 2023 free agency passing, the NBA, many are looking towards the 2023-24 season. Many teams have set most of their roster, while some teams are still waiting for potential moves to be made. With the information sporting outlets have, many have released their over/under win totals for the upcoming season. While some of the win totals for teams are fair totals, the following eight-win totals (provided by FanDuel Sportsbook) are some of the most intriguing win totals for the upcoming season.

Miami Heat: 48.5 Wins

The Miami Heat had an up-and-down season, finishing the 2022-23 season with a 44-38 record, good enough to make the play-in and eventually make it to the NBA Finals. This offseason, there have been a lot of moves made involving the Heat. Two of the biggest losses Miami was Max Strus (Signed with Cleveland) and Gabe Vincent (Signed with the Los Angeles Lakers), both of whom played big roles in Miami’s run to the Finals. In terms of additions, Miami added several role players including Thomas Bryant, and Josh Richardson, and recently drafted rookie Jaime Jaquez, Jr. Miami’s over/under of 48.5 wins strongly depends on a move that hasn’t even happened yet: a trade for a superstar point guard Damian Lillard. Making it clear he only wants to play for Miami, Damian Lillard alongside Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo would make for a scary trio in the Eastern Conference, as well as a legitimate championship contender. While the 2022-23 Heat showed that the regular season does not matter, adding Lillard would improve the team in the regular season as they look for another run to the NBA Finals. If Miami is not able to land Lillard at the end of his trade saga, they may take a slight step back missing a few key players, as well as having a now disgruntled young star in Tyler Herro.

Over or Under: Over

Los Angeles Clippers: 46.5 Wins

The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the most disappointing contenders in recent years. In the Kawhi Leonard / Paul George era (2019-20 season- present) the Clippers have won 49 games, 47 games, 42 games, and 44 games last season. Kawhi and PG have both been injured at times during the last four regular seasons, with Kawhi especially recovering from major injuries. Late last month, it was reported that Leonard had a clean-up procedure for his torn meniscus and should be ready in time for training camp. As for Paul George, he has gotten back to training after spraining his knee toward the end of the season. Even though the two will be ready for the season, it can be expected that both will miss 10-15 games alone due to load management. The Clippers still have a deep roster behind the two superstars, including players such as Russell Westbrook, Mason Plumlee, Terance Mann, and more. The Clippers will need their superstars as much as they can in a stacked Western Conference. If they miss more than expected, this could be another disappointing season for the Clippers.

Over or Under: Under

Chicago Bulls: 36.5 Wins

The Chicago Bulls had a rough start to their 2022-23 season but had a decent finish to the season following the All-Star Break. The team would finish with a 40-42 record. Zach Lavine showed why he’s one of the most underrated guards in the second half of the season while DeMar DeRozan had another All-Star season in the Windy City. Big Man Nikola Vucevic was a double-double machine, playing all 82 games. The Bulls trio played the most minutes together in the league but performed poorly together throughout the season. The Bulls had a decent offseason, extending Nikola Vucevic, Colby White, and Ayo Dosunmu, while signing Jevon Carter and Torey Craig, although their key loss was Patrick Beverly. They addressed a couple of their main issues in three-point shooting and perimeter defense. While the Lonzo Ball situation still looms over the team and the team salary, the Bulls were able to improve. The Bulls were able to make some changes while other teams in the middle and third tiers of the East did not make huge splashes in the offseason. The team should be able to improve this season, especially knowing Lonzo Ball will not be returning during the 2023-24 season.

Over or Under: Over

Cleveland Cavaliers 50.5 Wins

Cleveland had a great 2022-23 season, finishing with a 51-31 record, good enough for fourth in the Eastern Conference, and seven more wins than the 2021-22 season. This was the first season with Donovan Mitchell alongside Darius Garland. Mitchell would have one of the best seasons in his short career, while Garland showed why he deserved to be an All-Star. The duo also had help from important players in Caris LeVert, sophomore Evan Mobley, and Jarret Allen, among others. The Cavs had a quiet, yet solid offseason, losing several roles players, but adding promising talent as well. The biggest offseason moves came in re-signing Caris LeVert, extending the qualifying offer to Evan Mobley, and signing in Max Strus. The former Heat guard will add shooting to the team, as well as a dependable third option, with him likely starting for the team. Cleveland was also to add another reliable shooter in Georges Niang, another shooter who could help with the second unit. While the postseason is a different story, the Cavs should have similar regular season success in the 2023-24 season.

Over or Under: Over

Dallas Mavericks: 44.5 Wins

The Dallas Mavericks 2022-23 season can be split up into two parts: before and after the trade deadline. The team started off slow, even though Luka Doncic was looking like an MVP candidate. The highest the team would get in the standings would be the fourth seed in early January and February. The biggest change to the team would happen right before the deadline, with the Mavericks trading for Kyrie Irving. Irving would come at a significant cost including Dorian Finney-Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie, and draft compensation. The duo of Doncic and Irving did not work well, especially on the defensive end. Dallas would end up leaning into the tank, finishing with a 38-44 record, and missing the playoffs completely. The offseason would be a mixed bag for Dallas, re-signing Kyrie Irving to a three-year deal, signing Seth Curry, Acquiring Grant Williams, and more. They would trade a few pieces in Davis Bertans, Reggie Bullock, and more. Players will Curry and Williams will help space the floor for Doncic and Irving, but there are still issues on the defensive end. There is also no telling how Kyrie will be for a full season in Dallas. With other teams improving in the West, especially around Dallas in the standings, the 2023-24 season could see another step down in the standings.

Over or Under: Under

Phoenix Suns: 52.5 Wins

In a season that included injuries to their main star Devin Booker, as well as trading for Kevin Durant (who got injured shortly after joining the team), the Phoenix Suns had a good season overall. Finishing 45-37 in the 2023-24 season, the Suns expectations are to surpass that record. Phoenix had one of the biggest offseason of any team. The first big move would come in the Chris Paul (and other pieces) for Bradley Beal (and other pieces) as a part of a three-team trade with the Wizards and Pacers. Phoenix would then move on from most of its roster, with the team’s salary being nearly consumed by four players. The Suns would then add numerous veterans and role players on cheap deals including Bol Bol, Drew Eubanks, Keita Bates-Diop, Eric Gordon, and Yuta Watanabe. Surrounding their stars with shooters, Phoenix could be one of the most surprising teams next season. If everyone can stay healthy, the Suns could finish the season near the top of the Western Conference.

Over or Under: Over

Golden State Warriors: 48.5 Wins

Following their 2022 championship, the Golden State Warriors had a season that was a great disappointment by their standards. The Warriors spent much of the season around .500, but they felt like two different teams at times. At home, they were one of the best teams in the league, putting up a 33-8. On the road, they were one of the absolute worst teams, going 11-30. There are many things that played into the Warriors off-season, including injuries to Steph Curry, Andre Wiggins missing time, a down year from Klay Thompson, and everything involving Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. Many within the organization acknowledged the fact the team chemistry had been damaged, with off-season moves addressing that. The biggest of those moves saw the Warriors trade Jordan Poole to the Wizards for Chris Paul. The most important move of the season was the re-signing of Draymond Green. While they do not have the depth they once did, a healthy Warriors team is a scary team. With a team or two in the West likely to take a step back, Golden State should be able to deliver on a strong regular season.

Over or Under: Over

Philadelphia 76ers: 49.5 Wins

Having their best season record-wise in nearly 30 years, the Philadelphia 76ers were led by MVP Joel Embiid and James. Philly remained near the top of the East all season as Embiid claimed his first MVP award. In the postseason, they would flounder out in the second round, losing a seven-game series to the Boston Celtics. The 2023 offseason would just be another drama-filled offseason for Philly, firing head coach Doc Rivers, Joel Embiid saying he and Harden could not win alone, and of course, James Harden opting into his contract and then requesting a trade. This leaves many questions for the futures of Embiid and the Philly franchise. It’s possible that Harden may start the 2023-24 season with Philly, but the odds are that he will be gone by the time the season starts. While Tyrese Maxey is a more than capable guard to have next to Embiid, he is being asked to take a huge step next season. Philly has a more than capable roster including Tobias Harris, Patrick Beverly, Mo Bamba, and more. If Harden does end up leaving, it’s likely the Sixers will take a small step back, with a bigger workload being put on Embiid and Maxey.

Over or Under: Under