NBA Swing: What the First Pick Would Mean for Every Bottom-10 Team

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With the end of the 2025-26 season just a couple of weeks away, 20 teams are preparing for the 2026 postseason. While four of those teams will be eliminated via the Play-In Tournament and enter the lottery, the bottom 10 teams across the league are focused on the horizon, as they hold the best odds of landing the first overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. This year features a loaded class with potentially franchise-altering prospects, including AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer. Securing the top selection could save a struggling franchise or catapult a rising team to the next level.

Sacramento Kings

They have faced a difficult stretch over the last two decades, making the playoffs only once in twenty years and sliding back to the bottom of the West after a brief 2023 resurgence. Despite having stars like DeMarcus Cousins, De’Aaron Fox, and Tyrese Haliburton over the last 15 years, the organization has struggled to build lasting success around them. The current veteran trio of Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan has failed to click, and as a small-market team that struggles to attract elite free agents, the draft remains their best lifeline. Landing the first overall pick, for which they currently hold a 12.5% chance, would allow Sacramento to clear the slate and finally build around a true cornerstone.

Utah Jazz

One of the most discussed teams this season due to their transparent rebuilding efforts. On pace to miss the playoffs for a fourth straight year, the Jazz have nevertheless stockpiled talent, pairing Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. with Lauri Markkanen alongside young pieces like Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, and Ace Bailey. Utah has historically struggled to land marquee free agents, making the draft essential for their growth. With a 10.5% chance at the top pick, they could land a local sensation in BYU’s AJ Dybantsa to lead their new era.

Dallas Mavericks

In a stunning turn of events, the Mavs landed the #1 pick in 2025 with just a 1.8% chance and selected Cooper Flagg, who has lived up to the hype as a premier rookie. However, the rest of the roster—featuring veterans like Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, and Khris Middleton—is built for a different window. Adding a second consecutive #1 pick to pair with Flagg would give Dallas arguably the brightest future in the Western Conference. With a 9.0% chance of winning the lottery again, a duo of Flagg and Dybantsa or Peterson could instantly transform the Mavericks from bottom-tier residents to perennial contenders.

Memphis Grizzlies

A team in a state of flux. The relationship with star Ja Morant has deteriorated, and while he wasn’t moved at the deadline, a summer trade feels inevitable following the departure of Jaren Jackson Jr. With a core of young talent like Cedric Coward, Zach Edey, and Jaylen Wells, Memphis is embracing a full rebuild. Securing the top pick would restore star power to the city and provide a clear direction for the post-Morant era. They currently hold a 7.5% chance to land that transformative talent.

New Orleans Pelicans

They have struggled to find consistent success even after drafting Zion Williamson first overall in 2019, resulting in only two first-round exits in seven years. A disjointed core of Williamson, Jordan Poole, and Dejounte Murray has left the franchise without a clear identity. The top pick would offer a fresh start and the flexibility to move on from the Zion era. However, due to previous trades, their 6.0% lottery odds actually belong to the Atlanta Hawks, who acquired the Pelicans’ 2026 first-rounder in the deal for Derik Queen.

Indiana Pacers

Are in a unique position after a legendary run to the 2025 NBA Finals ended in a Game 7 heartbreak and a devastating Achilles injury to Tyrese Haliburton. Without their superstar guard, the Pacers have plummeted in the standings. While Haliburton is expected back for the 2026-27 season, his health remains a question mark. If he returns to form, adding a top pick alongside him and Pascal Siakam would immediately return Indiana to championship contention. The Pacers are currently tied for the best lottery odds at 14%.

Brooklyn Nets

This team has endured a decade of misfortune, from the infamous 2013 trade with Boston to the collapsed “Big Three” era of Durant, Irving, and Harden. Having failed to win more than 35 games in each of the last three seasons, the Nets remain desperate for a superstar anchor. Since they often struggle to lure top-tier free agents without a foundation in place, the draft is their most viable path to relevance. Like Indiana, Brooklyn holds a 14% chance at the #1 overall pick.

Washington Wizards

The team is deep into a rebuild centered on youth, though their two primary stars, Trae Young and Anthony Davis, have dealt with significant injuries. Integrating a prospect like Boozer or Peterson into a roster already trending toward a younger identity would clarify their long-term path. With a 14% chance at the top selection, the Wizards have a prime opportunity to secure the final piece of their competitive puzzle.

Chicago Bulls

Seeking their first taste of true championship relevance since the 1990s. After years of sitting in the “middle of the pack,” the organization has finally pivoted back toward a full rebuild. For the Reinsdorf family and the Chicago fanbase, the #1 pick would provide the star power necessary to make the United Center a premier destination again. Though they only have a 3.7% chance, the impact of such a win would be monumental for the franchise’s visibility.

Milwaukee Bucks

View the 2026 top pick as a potential saving grace. In one scenario, it could be the key to convincing Giannis Antetokounmpo to sign a long-term extension and forgo a trade request this summer. In another, should Giannis depart, the pick would provide an immediate successor to prevent a decade-long stay in the cellar. With a 3.8% chance, the Bucks are hoping for a lottery miracle to secure their future in the post-championship era.