NBA Swing: New Contracts Spell Doom on Potential OKC Dynasty?

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Just under a month ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder won their first championship in league history, led by the trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. Now, several weeks into the offseason, the Thunder have made sure that their star trio has been taken care of.

The first move by the Thunder would be to extend Alexander with a four-year supermax contract worth $285 million. The extension keeps Alexander with the Thunder through the 2030-31 season. The extension gives him the highest single-season average salary in league history. Alexander’s contract extension kicks in for the 2027-28 season.

A day later, the Thunder would agree to a rookie max contract extension with Chet Holmgren. The extension will pay Holmgren $250 million over five years. Holmgren’s contract extension kicks in for the 2026-27 season. The Thunder would follow that up with another extension, giving Jalen Williams a rookie max contract extension that could reach $287 million over five years. Williams’ contract extension starts in the 2026-27 season.

Locking up their three stars, the Thunder will be spending $822 million. Next season, the Thunder will be paying $38.3 million for SGA, $6.5 million for Jalen Williams (exercising their club option), and $13.7 million for Chet Holmgren (also exercising their club option for him). The three will account for just over $58.5 million or 37% of the 2025-26 salary cap of $154.6 million. For the 2025-26 season, the Thunder are expected to be just a few million dollars under the first apron, but the 2026-27 season will be the beginning of both William’s and Holmgren’s contract extensions.

The 2026-27 season will see SGA make $38.3 million, Williams make $41.3 million, and Holmgren make $41.3 million for a total of $120 million or roughly 75% of the 2026-27 salary of $165 million. With Williams and Holmgren’s new deals being added to the 2026-27 salary, the Thunder are expected to have $246 million allocated to the team, making them the most expensive team in the league. They will be $23 million over the second apron and will begin to face the penalties introduced by the CBA.

For the Thunder, the most complete team in the NBA, the prospect of a potential dynasty could be limited to just a year or two window before the CBA forces the Thunder to make a change. While all three are signed through the 2030-31 season, it is a guarantee that one or two of those stars will not be with the team through 2031. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being one of the best players in the league and the 2025 NBA MVP, he is most likely to remain with the team through the end of his deal unless he were to ever request a trade.

With the new CBA, the Thunder may have to part with either Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren shortly or face the consequences of the second apron. While it’s not an immediate problem for the Thunder, the effects of the CBA will hit the Thunder like it has hit numerous teams across the league already. OKC could see itself in a situation like the Boston Celtics, having to move off several key players to keep their stars on a team lacking depth.