The Death of the Tank? Why the NBA is Ready to Blow Up the Draft Lottery System

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The NBA is officially preparing to wage war on “the tank.” On Wednesday, March 25, 2026, Commissioner Adam Silver presented the Board of Governors with three radical proposals designed to overhaul the draft lottery system.

The move comes after months of criticism regarding teams “racing to the bottom” to secure top picks in what is projected to be a historically deep 2026 draft class. While the league has modified the lottery four times since the 1980s, Silver made it clear this week that the current system is no longer operating optimally, stating, “We are going to fix it. Full stop.”

Here is an in-depth look at the three concepts currently being debated ahead of a formal vote in May.

Proposal 1: The “Eighteen-Team Flattened Odds”

This plan focuses on broadening the lottery pool and making it nearly impossible to “aim” for the number one pick by losing.

How it Works: The lottery would expand from 14 teams to 18 teams, effectively incorporating the four teams from each conference that qualify for the Play-In Tournament.
The Odds: The bottom 10 teams would all be given an equal 8% chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The remaining 20% of the odds would be distributed in descending order among the eight Play-In teams (seeds 7–10 in each conference).
The Twist: Unlike the current system, where only the top few picks are drawn, all 18 spots would be determined via lottery, meaning a team with the worst record could theoretically slide much further down the board than they can today.

Proposal 2: The “Two-Year Weighted Record” with a Win Floor

This proposal borrows a page from the WNBA playbook, looking at a team’s performance over a longer period to distinguish between a “genuine rebuild” and a single-season tank.

How it Works: The lottery would expand to 22 teams, adding the four playoff teams eliminated in the first round. Draft odds would be determined by a team’s combined record over the previous two seasons.
The Win Floor: To prevent teams from bottoming out entirely, the league would implement a “minimum win total” (e.g., 20 or 25 wins). If a team wins only 14 games, they are “slotted” as having won the minimum for lottery purposes.
The Goal: This system rewards sustained effort. A team that is consistently competitive but just misses the playoffs would be on equal footing with a team that intentionally gutted its roster for a single season.

Proposal 3: The “Five-by-Five” Method

This concept seeks to protect the worst teams from falling too far while still removing the massive incentive to have the absolute worst record.

How it Works: Like Proposal 1, this involves 18 teams. However, the teams with the five worst records would all share the exact same odds for the No. 1 pick.
The Two-Stage Lottery: There would be a specific drawing for each of the top five picks. Once those are set, a second drawing will occur for the remaining 13 teams.
The Safety Net: To ensure the truly “bad” teams still get high-end talent, any team in that “bottom five” group that fails to land a top-five pick would be prohibited from falling past 10th in the draft order.

What Happens Next?

NBA owners, GMs, and presidents will continue to tweak these concepts throughout April. A special meeting is expected in May 2026 to hold a formal vote. If approved, these changes would likely go into effect for the 2026-27 season, meaning the 2027 NBA Draft would be the first to feature the new format.