NBA Swing: Three Teams at a Crossroads Heading into 2026

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As the league passes the 30-game mark, the 2025-26 NBA season is officially over a third of the way through. While the Detroit Pistons have taken a massive leap into the East’s top tier and teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets continue their conference dominance, several perennial contenders have reached a stalemate. For these teams, years of competing have failed to yield a championship, and they now find themselves surpassed by younger, hungrier rosters. With the 2026 trade deadline just under seven weeks away, the following three franchises must determine if it is finally time to pivot.

Atlanta Hawks: The Jalen Johnson Era Begins?

For years, the Atlanta Hawks have been defined by Trae Young. Following a magical 2021 run to the Eastern Conference Finals, the team has struggled to recapture that lightning in a bottle, enduring consecutive first-round exits followed by two seasons of missing the playoffs entirely. Despite an aggressive offseason that brought in Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Hawks haven’t seen the results they hoped for in a relatively top-heavy East.

The dynamic shifted early this season when Young suffered a sprained MCL just five games in. During his 22-game absence, the Hawks didn’t just survive—they thrived, going 13-9 behind the spectacular emergence of Jalen Johnson. In that stretch, Johnson looked like a legitimate first-time All-Star and a franchise cornerstone, averaging 23.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 9.0 assists with elite shooting splits of 50/40/80. Even in Young’s return on December 18th—a loss to the Charlotte Hornets—Johnson dominated with a career-high 43 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists.

With an exciting young core of Johnson, Dyson Daniels, and Alexander-Walker, the Hawks’ future is bright. Furthermore, they are likely to land a top-three pick in the 2026 NBA Draft via the New Orleans Pelicans. This raises the uncomfortable question: Does Trae Young still fit? With Young earning $45 million this season and holding a $48 million player option for 2026-27, moving his contract is a monumental task unless he opts out. Nevertheless, the next few weeks will decide if the Trae Young era in Atlanta has reached its natural conclusion.

Cleveland Cavaliers: The “Core Four” at a Breaking Point

Since Donovan Mitchell arrived in 2022, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been a regular-season juggernaut that loses its teeth in the postseason. After win totals of 51, 48, and 64 over the last three years, the results remain stagnant: a first-round exit followed by back-to-back second-round eliminations. Even a coaching change to Kenny Atkinson hasn’t solved the fundamental chemistry issues between their stars.

Now 28 games into the 2025-26 season, the “Core Four” era in Cleveland appears to be failing. Expected to dominate the East, the Cavs sit at a middling 15-13, having dropped seven of their last ten games. The statistical gap between their guards is jarring; while Mitchell is carrying the load with a career-high 30.7 points per game, Darius Garland has slumped to a career-low 15.4 points per game.

Financially, the walls are closing in. With apron allocations at $229 million, the Cavs are currently over both the first and second tax aprons, with penalties looming if they remain there in 2026-27. Reportedly, rival teams have been calling Cleveland incessantly, with only Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley labeled as “untouchable.” It is highly expected that at least one major piece—likely Garland or Jarrett Allen—will be moved before February to rebalance the roster and the checkbook.

Golden State Warriors: Maximizing the Curry Sunset

The Golden State Warriors’ modern dynasty has always lived and died with Stephen Curry. Despite rotating stars like Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and now Jimmy Butler through the roster, the sun still rises and sets with #30. At age 37, Curry is having a sensational year that looks increasingly like a wasted masterpiece. Averaging 29.6 points—his highest since his unanimous MVP season in 2016—on 48/40/90 splits, Curry is still playing at an elite level.

The problem lies with the supporting cast. Jimmy Butler is averaging 19.1 points, his lowest output since his first year in Miami, and Steve Kerr has largely removed Jonathan Kuminga from the rotation. With Kuminga widely expected to be traded after his January 15th restriction is lifted, the Warriors are desperately lacking a consistent third scoring option.

Linked to superstars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lauri Markkanen, the Warriors have the draft assets—holding most of their first-round picks through 2032—to make a seismic move. In a Western Conference that is deeper than ever, Golden State cannot afford to be “pretty good.” They owe it to the generational superstar who brought them four championships to swing for the fences one last time in the final years of his prime.