Shifting Sands: The Intense NFL Playoff Picture Entering Thanksgiving Week

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With only six full weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL regular season, the playoff picture is defined by unexpected division leaders and a frantic battle for the final Wild Card spots in both conferences. Week 12 saw a monumental NFC comeback and a tense AFC overtime finish that dramatically reshaped the seeding.

The AFC Race: Patriots and Broncos at the Top

The AFC side of the bracket is dominated by two surprise division leaders vying for the critical single-game playoff bye.

Top Seeds (Division Leaders): The New England Patriots (10-2) hold the coveted AFC No. 1 seed, extending their division lead in the AFC East with a win over the Bengals. Their strong conference record places them ahead of the Denver Broncos (9-2), who remain firmly in control of the AFC West at the No. 2 seed. The Indianapolis Colts (8-3) secured the No. 3 seed in the AFC South despite their close Week 12 loss, but their lead over the Jaguars has narrowed. The Baltimore Ravens (6-5) have engineered a strong comeback after a slow start and currently hold the No. 4 seed and the AFC North lead via a division record tiebreaker over the Steelers.

Wild Card Logjam: The competition for the three Wild Card spots is fierce, with three teams sitting at 7-4. The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) currently hold the No. 5 spot, utilizing a conference record tiebreaker over the Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) at No. 6. The Buffalo Bills (7-4) claim the No. 7 seed, but they are constantly battling a pack of 6-5 teams right behind them, most notably the Steelers, Texans, and the reigning AFC champion Chiefs, who remain on the outside looking in despite their much-needed Week 12 win.

The NFC Picture: Rams Take Control, Chaos in the East and North

The NFC is arguably more volatile, with the top of the conference changing hands and two division races hanging on razor-thin margins.

Top Seeds (Division Leaders): The Los Angeles Rams (9-2) made a definitive statement in prime time, taking over the NFC’s No. 1 seed after their dominant win and the Eagles’ stunning loss. They now control the path to a home-field advantage. The Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) dropped to the No. 2 seed after blowing a massive lead to the Cowboys, though they still hold the crucial head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams. The Chicago Bears (8-3) continue their strong run, holding the No. 3 seed and the lead in the NFC North, just a half-game ahead of the surging Packers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) remain atop the unsettled NFC South as the No. 4 seed.

Wild Card Contenders: The Wild Card race features several strong teams fighting for seeding. The Seattle Seahawks (8-3) currently hold the No. 5 Wild Card spot. The Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) are hanging tough at No. 6, followed closely by the San Francisco 49ers (8-4) at No. 7. Right on their heels are the Detroit Lions, whose overtime win kept them in the hunt. The Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) stayed mathematically alive with their comeback victory, adding another wild card to an already crowded NFC bubble.

Only the New York Giants have been officially eliminated from playoff contention, making the remaining six weeks a dramatic, high-stakes sprint for the rest of the league.