Early Look at Heisman Front-Runners: Who’s Making Noise After Week 4

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The first month of the 2025 college football season has shaken up many preconceived notions about who deserves to be in the Heisman race. With standout performances, injuries, and betting markets reacting in real time, the trophy discussion is already becoming electric.

Let’s break it down: who’s ascended, who’s in jeopardy, and who could still crash the party.

???? Movers & Shakers

John Mateer (Oklahoma, QB)

For much of the early season, Mateer has been the name to beat. He’s paired arm talent with rushing ability, and his dual-threat output has turned heads. Following a clutch win over Auburn, he extended a streak of games with both a passing and rushing touchdown to 10. His odds dropped to +700 at BetMGM.

However, his campaign took a serious blow this week: he’s slated for surgery on a right-hand injury and is expected to miss several games. That could derail his path if he can’t return in time with enough volume.

Fernando Mendoza (Indiana, QB)

Mendoza is arguably the biggest beneficiary of Mateer’s injury. Through four games, he’s thrown 14 touchdowns with zero interceptions and led Indiana to a dominant 63–10 win over Illinois. His odds have shortened dramatically, and he’s now being called the top candidate to win the Heisman.

Dante Moore (Oregon, QB) & Carson Beck (Miami, QB)

Both quarterbacks remain in the mix. Moore now has a reputation for high-volume passing in a strong PAC-12 offense. Beck, quietly efficient, has taken advantage of a leaky defense in the ACC to keep his name in the conversation.

Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State, WR)

A rare early mention as a non-quarterback, Smith continues to attract Heisman buzz. Wide receivers rarely win, but his early production and role in a high-powered OSU offense make him a player to watch in the second half of the season.

???? Risk Factors & Potential Roadblocks

Missing time matters: Mateer’s injury is the most dramatic shake-up so far. Even if he returns, missing multiple games during crunch time is a huge disadvantage.
Team performance is crucial: Even elite individual stats won’t carry a candidate if the team is losing or failing to meet expectations. The Heisman often rewards those atop their teams.
Volume & consistency: Candidates must maintain output across October and November when defenses tighten and pressure increases.
Stat sheet digging: Turnovers, efficiency, and big moments matter. A team’s quarterback can’t just pile up yards—they must make winning plays.

???? Who Currently Has the Edge?

Given current circumstances, Fernando Mendoza is the rider with momentum. His flawless turnover stat line, combined with explosive performances, leaves him in pole position—especially now that Mateer’s availability is uncertain.

If Mendoza can sustain that level, he could slip into favorite status. But keep watching Moore, Beck, and even Smith, because the Heisman race still has many weeks to run.

???? Heisman Watch Table: Top Contenders (Week 5)

Candidate	Position / School	Odds*	Key Stats / Highlights
Fernando Mendoza	QB, Indiana	+800	14 passing TDs, 0 INTs; five-TD game in 63–10 win over Illinois
John Mateer	QB, Oklahoma	+900 (was +700 before injury)	1,215 passing yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs; also 190 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs
Dante Moore	QB, Oregon	+1,300	Strong passing numbers, consistency in PAC-12 offense
Carson Beck	QB, Miami	+1,300	Efficient play, rising in odds market
Gunner Stockton	QB, Georgia	+1,400	Rising odds, gaining attention as an underdog candidate
Jeremiah Smith	WR, Ohio State	+1,500	Top non-QB candidate; standout receiving stats