Underdog Alerts: Top Value Picks for the 2025 Kentucky Derby

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The Kentucky Derby is a world-renowned spectacle that combines athletic prowess, strategy, and sheer unpredictability. While favorites often dominate headlines, it’s the underdog stories that capture our hearts and, sometimes, offer the most rewarding outcomes.

With the 2025 Derby around the corner, it’s time to sift through the contenders and spotlight the value picks that could surprise us all.

This guide dives into the top underrated picks for this year’s Derby, backed by data, horse racing insights, and a touch of gut instinct.

Why Betting on Underdogs Pays Off

Historically, betting on well-known favorites poses a lower risk, but the payouts are often less thrilling. That’s where underdogs come into play. Value picks are horses with potential that the general betting public might overlook. They might boast outstanding trainers, strong recent performances, or be faced with favorable track conditions that can lead to an upset.

Take Rich Strike, for example, the 80-1 winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2022. Few saw it coming, but those who placed their trust in the dark horse (pun intended) ended up celebrating big wins. Similarly, Mystik Dan’s rail-threading win in 2024 serves as a reminder to never underestimate the less obvious contenders.

As the excitement builds for 2025 Kentucky Derby betting, we’ve highlighted some standout underdogs who might just disrupt the race to the roses.

Top Value Picks for the 2025 Kentucky Derby

1. Flood Zone

Odds: 39-1
Trainer: Brad Cox

Flood Zone impressed at the Gotham Stakes in March, snatching a commanding win and earning 50 points on the leaderboard. Brad Cox, known for crafting disciplined racers, could have a strong strategy in place for Derby day. While not yet a favorite in horse racing predictions, careful observers note Flood Zone’s consistency and ability to stay strong in the final stretch.

2. Chunk of Gold

Odds: 75-1
Trainer: Ethan West

Lightly raced yet steadily improving, Chunk of Gold stunned audiences at the Tampa Bay Derby, where he placed third despite tough competition. Though his odds remain long, his versatile running style suggests he could adapt well to Churchill Downs’ unique challenges. Don’t sleep on this contender.

3. Owen Almighty

Odds: 46-1
Trainer: Brian Lynch

After a standout performance at the Tampa Bay Derby, where he claimed victory and earned crucial points, Owen Almighty has been flying under the radar as larger names dominate the betting odds. With Lynch’s solid experience and the horse’s strong endurance, this underdog could provide a thrilling finish.

4. Coal Battle

Odds: 14-1
Trainer: Lonnie Briley

Coal Battle is no stranger to the spotlight, having secured the Rebel Stakes in February. Despite being on the edge of what defines a “value pick,” Coal Battle’s aggressive running style and proven ability to tackle competitive fields make him a standout underdog. If conditions play in his favor, he could challenge the front-runners like a seasoned pro.

5. Journalism

Odds: 5-1
Trainer: Michael McCarthy

While some may argue that Journalism is barely an “underdog” given his trainer’s credentials, he’s still overshadowed by household names like Tiztastic and Sovereignty. His win at the San Felipe Stakes demonstrated undeniable strength, and strategic bettors might recognize him as a high-value option poised to rally late in the Derby.

The Thrill of Betting on the Unexpected

Every Derby carries the allure of the unexpected. Underdogs bring heart, grit, and the chance for dramatic finishes that remind us why we love the sport.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or casually exploring horse racing insights, don’t hesitate to consider these top value picks for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Who knows? These long shots could land you in the winner’s circle or, at the very least, provide a race day full of excitement.