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The 2026 MLB regular season has reached its final month. The playoff races now enter their most important stretch. Several teams have exceeded expectations. Others have fallen well short of preseason hopes. The Tampa Bay Rays headline the surprise group. They own one of baseball’s best records at 82-54. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers have built an impressive National League Central lead. The Chicago White Sox have also stunned the baseball world. However, several contenders have created serious concerns. The New York Mets, San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners stand out. Here are the biggest surprises and disappointments entering September.
Tampa Bay Rays: Biggest Surprise
The Rays remain the biggest surprise in baseball. Tampa Bay entered the season with modest expectations. Instead, the Rays have built an 82-54 record. They also sit comfortably atop the American League East. That puts them ahead of the Yankees and Red Sox. The Rays have received contributions throughout their roster. Their depth continues to separate them from other contenders. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has continued winning despite playing in baseball’s toughest division. That makes their success even more impressive. The Rays now have a legitimate chance to win the American League. They also look capable of making a deep postseason run.
Milwaukee Brewers: Another Huge Surprise
Milwaukee has quietly become one of baseball’s best teams. The Brewers enter September with an 85-52 record. They also hold a significant advantage in the NL Central. Milwaukee has consistently played strong baseball throughout the season. The team’s depth has helped maintain that success. The Brewers also rank among the National League’s strongest overall teams. They now have a chance to secure one of the league’s top playoff seeds. That seemed far less likely before the season began.
Chicago White Sox: The Shock Team
The Chicago White Sox might have the most surprising season. Chicago suffered one of the worst seasons in baseball history two years ago. Now, the White Sox sit at 72-64. That record puts them firmly in the American League playoff picture. Their turnaround has changed expectations around the franchise. The White Sox still face a difficult September. However, reaching the postseason would represent an enormous accomplishment. Even remaining competitive has surprised many baseball observers.
Atlanta Braves: Back Among the Elite
The Atlanta Braves also deserve recognition. Atlanta enters September with an 82-55 record. That gives the Braves one of baseball’s strongest records. They have remained competitive throughout a difficult National League landscape. The Braves also continue chasing Philadelphia in the NL East. Their success matters because Atlanta entered the season with major expectations. So far, the Braves have delivered. They could enter October as one of the National League’s biggest threats.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Still Dangerous
The Dodgers continue looking like a championship contender. Los Angeles owns an 82-55 record entering September. That record gives them another strong regular season. However, the Dodgers have not completely dominated the National League West. Arizona and San Diego remain serious challengers. That makes the division race more interesting than many expected. Still, nobody wants to face Los Angeles in October. The Dodgers have too much talent and postseason experience.
New York Mets: Biggest Disappointment
The Mets have become one of baseball’s biggest disappointments. New York enters September with a 61-76 record. That record represents a stunning fall for a team with playoff expectations. The Mets also sit far behind Philadelphia and Atlanta in the NL East. Their season has featured too many stretches of inconsistent baseball. The offense has struggled to provide enough support. The pitching staff has also faced significant problems. New York now faces an offseason filled with difficult questions.
San Diego Padres: A Major Letdown
The Padres have also disappointed this season. San Diego enters September with a 72-65 record. That record keeps them alive in the Wild Card race. However, the Padres expected much more from this roster. They entered 2026 with significant talent across the lineup. Their pitching staff also carried major expectations. Instead, San Diego has spent much of the season fighting for position. The Padres still have time to change that narrative. However, September leaves little room for mistakes.
Seattle Mariners: Falling Short
Seattle represents another major disappointment. The Mariners enter September with a 64-73 record. That record puts them well behind the top teams in the American League. Seattle entered the season with legitimate postseason expectations. Instead, several key players have struggled to match expectations. The team also faces a difficult road toward a winning record. Seattle now needs a dramatic September turnaround.
Boston Red Sox: Disappointing, But Still Alive
Boston deserves a more complicated label. The Red Sox enter September at 74-63. That record keeps them firmly involved in the playoff race. However, Boston entered the season with bigger expectations. The team also struggled early enough to fire Alex Cora. That move created major questions around the organization. Boston has responded well since then. The Red Sox own baseball’s best post-All-Star break record at 25-11. Still, their recent series against New York exposed some concerns. The Yankees crushed Boston 16-1 on Sunday. New York also won three of four games. Boston remains in strong playoff position. Yet, the team cannot afford another prolonged slump.
Houston Astros: A Complicated Story
Houston has also experienced a strange season. The Astros enter September with a 69-68 record. That record would disappoint most Houston fans. However, Houston still leads the AL West. The Astros also recently regained momentum during a difficult stretch. Houston went 4-2 on a recent road trip. That run included an important victory over the Yankees. The team also dismissed general manager Dana Brown. That decision created additional uncertainty around the organization. Still, Houston has enough talent to reach October. The final month will determine whether that talent proves enough.
The Final Month Should Be Wild
September could produce several major surprises. The Rays, Brewers and White Sox have already exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, the Mets and Mariners face major questions. The Padres and Astros also need strong finishes. Boston remains one of the most fascinating teams to watch. The Red Sox have played excellent baseball since the All-Star break. Yet, their pitching depth remains a concern. The Yankees also remain firmly in the AL East race. Their latest victory over Boston provided another major statement.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Los Angeles look dangerous in the National League. With October approaching, every series matters. The next few weeks will determine which surprises become playoff stories. They will also determine which disappointments become offseason problems. The Rays, Brewers and White Sox have delivered the biggest surprises. The Mets and Mariners stand out as the biggest disappointments. Boston falls somewhere in the middle because its recent surge has kept its season alive.
I agree with the list the last month of the 2026 MLB season will be exciting.
Author Profile
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Bradley Walker (VP) and Head of our Florida operations for NGSC Sports, bringing extensive experience across collegiate, professional, and amateur athletics. His coverage spans USF Athletics, including football, baseball, lacrosse, and softball, as well as University of Tampa baseball.
Bradley also provides coverage of minor league baseball with the Clearwater Threshers and Major League Baseball with the Tampa Bay Rays. On the national stage, he covers college football bowl games and conference championship matchups, along with premier golf events across the PGA Tour, LIV Golf, and LPGA Tour.
In addition to his reporting work, Bradley is the play-by-play announcer for Pinellas Park High School Patriots football, lending his voice and insight to Friday night lights.
He is also an active podcast host and contributor, serving as a host on The Walker Report, where he delivers in-depth sports analysis, interviews, and coverage across multiple levels of competition.
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