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The NFL rarely follows the script from one season to another. Teams can rise quickly, while playoff contenders can suddenly fall. The 2026 season could bring several surprising declines. Several teams enjoyed major success during the 2025 campaign. However, repeating that success will prove difficult. Injuries, tougher schedules, roster changes, and regression can change everything. Here are five teams I believe face the biggest decline risks in 2026.
- Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears sit near the top of the regression list. Chicago finished 11-6 during Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach. The Bears also won a playoff game against Green Bay. However, they lost to the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round. The biggest concern involves Chicago’s success in close games. The Bears won eight games by fewer than seven points. They also produced seven fourth-quarter comebacks, including the playoffs. That level of late-game success remains difficult to repeat. Caleb Williams gives Chicago plenty of optimism. Still, the Bears face a difficult schedule. One regression candidate also noted their challenging 2026 slate. I still expect Chicago to compete for the NFC North. However, a 9-8 or 10-7 finish feels more realistic.
- Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville might face an even bigger challenge after its stunning turnaround. The Jaguars went from 4-13 in 2024 to 13-4 in 2025. Liam Coen helped transform the franchise during his first season. That turnaround deserves plenty of credit. Still, repeating 13 wins will require another exceptional season. Jacksonville also lost several important contributors during the offseason. Travis Etienne left for New Orleans. The Jaguars also lost Devin Lloyd, Maason Smith, and Greg Newsome II. The Jaguars remain dangerous because Trevor Lawrence leads the offense. Nevertheless, projections have Jacksonville closer to nine wins. That would represent a significant drop from 13 victories. I expect Jacksonville to remain competitive. However, winning the AFC South again could prove difficult.
- New England Patriots
The New England Patriots completed one of the NFL’s biggest turnarounds in 2025. New England went from 4-13 to 14-3. The Patriots also reached Super Bowl LX. That kind of improvement creates enormous expectations. Drake Maye now faces the challenge of building upon a breakthrough season. The Patriots also lost several notable players during the offseason. Stefon Diggs left after one season with New England. Garrett Bradbury also departed after helping stabilize the offensive line. New England added talent, including A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. However, injuries have already tested the roster during August. The team recently added veteran guard Greg Van Roten after an offensive line injury. The Patriots can still win the AFC East. Yet, dropping closer to 10 or 11 wins feels possible.
- Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers also made a major jump during 2025. Carolina reached the playoffs after winning the NFC South. The team showed significant improvement throughout the season. However, repeating that success could prove challenging. The Panthers must now handle increased expectations across the roster. Bryce Young remains central to Carolina’s future. The quarterback showed encouraging progress, but the Panthers still need greater consistency. Carolina also faces stronger competition across the NFC. Several teams improved during the offseason. Meanwhile, playoff opponents now have more film on the Panthers. That combination creates a dangerous regression recipe. I could see Carolina falling back toward the middle of the NFC South. A nine-win season would not surprise me. It could still keep Carolina in the playoff conversation.
- Denver Broncos
Denver presents one of the more controversial choices. The Broncos won 14 games during the 2025 regular season. Bo Nix also continued developing into a promising young quarterback. Still, repeating 14 wins remains a massive challenge. Denver added Jaylen Waddle during the offseason. The Broncos also maintained a talented defensive foundation. Those moves provide legitimate reasons for optimism. However, the AFC West remains extremely competitive. Kansas City, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas all present different challenges. Denver cannot afford many mistakes in that environment. Even a small decline could drop the Broncos several spots in the conference standings. I still expect Denver to make the playoff race interesting. However, 10 or 11 wins seems more realistic than another 14-win season.
Regression Does Not Mean Collapse
A decline does not automatically mean a team becomes bad. The NFL changes too quickly for simple predictions. Chicago, Jacksonville, New England, Carolina, and Denver still have legitimate playoff potential. Each team also has enough talent to overcome its concerns. However, last season’s success creates a different challenge. Opponents now understand these teams better. Furthermore, close games often swing differently from one year to another. The 2026 season should create plenty of surprises. Therefore, these five teams deserve extra attention.
If I had to pick the biggest decline, I would choose Chicago. The Bears relied heavily on close-game victories in 2025. That formula rarely produces the same results twice. Jacksonville ranks second because repeating a 13-win turnaround remains extremely difficult. New England follows because 14 wins after a four-win season creates enormous regression pressure. Denver and Carolina round out the group. Both teams could still reach the postseason. Yet, neither team should expect another easy path to playoff football. The NFL rewards consistency, but it punishes complacency. In 2026, these five teams could learn that lesson quickly.
Author Profile
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Bradley Walker (VP) and Head of our Florida operations for NGSC Sports, bringing extensive experience across collegiate, professional, and amateur athletics. His coverage spans USF Athletics, including football, baseball, lacrosse, and softball, as well as University of Tampa baseball.
Bradley also provides coverage of minor league baseball with the Clearwater Threshers and Major League Baseball with the Tampa Bay Rays. On the national stage, he covers college football bowl games and conference championship matchups, along with premier golf events across the PGA Tour, LIV Golf, and LPGA Tour.
In addition to his reporting work, Bradley is the play-by-play announcer for Pinellas Park High School Patriots football, lending his voice and insight to Friday night lights.
He is also an active podcast host and contributor, serving as a host on The Walker Report, where he delivers in-depth sports analysis, interviews, and coverage across multiple levels of competition.
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