Rafael Devers Extension: Overpay?

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As first reported by former MLB all-star Carlos Baerga, the Red Sox have retained the services of Rafael Devers for the rest of the decade (and a bit more) in a massive 11-year/$331 million contract extension. This deal is understandably important, as it will effectively determine the direction that one of the league’s biggest teams will take over these next few years… but for that price tag?

Is Devers Really Worth It?

Rafael Devers is Boston’s best asset so it makes sense for the team to want to lock him up now – especially after they lost their previous franchise cornerstones, Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts, in a series of embarrassing and uncharacteristic managerial miscues.

From a baseball sense, Devers is guaranteed to be one of the league’s best hitters for the rest of the decade. Devers has consistently ranked in the 90-97th percentile in EV, xBA, xSLG, wOBA, and hard hit %, while also putting up the occassional .900 OPS seasons. A great clubhouse presence since his debut, Devers was set to reach free agency in 2023. The Red Sox, in all honesty, would have allowed themselves to get outbid by a team like the Dodgers.

Coming off of the loss of aforementioned fan-favorite Xander Bogaerts, this deal makes sense from an FO-perspective. Boston needed to make a big move of some kind to retain the rabid yet finicky Boston fanbase. Knowing that this deal makes a lot of sense from a short-term financial perspective, as the jersey sales and a re-stabilization in ticket sales will surely cover their losses on this type of overpay for the next few years.

But is it really an overpay?

The 26-year-old superstar gets the largest contract in Red Sox history. One should wonder why that contract wasn’t handed back in 2019 to future HOFer Mookie Betts — but I digress. With rumors floating around that the Red Sox were looking to hand Devers a Matt Olson-type contract, it is a surprise that the number ballooned to a $30 million dollar AAV (average annual value).

He doesn’t have many players to create case studies off of, but younger stars like Carlos Correa, who will play 3rd for the Mets this upcoming season, are as good a benchmark as we’re going to get.

Carlos Correa vs. Rafael Devers

Correa and Devers will have similar contracts, but Devers will be getting a slightly bigger contract. The main advantage Correa carries are his defense and postseason prowess. Since his 2018 season, Correa has been one of the league’s best defenders at shortstop. Correa even won the platinum glove in an 11-OAA 2021 season. On the other hand, Devers has been one of the league’s worst defenders at third since his debut. Outside of a freak 2019 season (a season where he had 17 OAA?!), Devers has had a negative OAA every season. His 2022 mark of -2 shows serious improvement on that side, but Correa’s defensive advantage cannot be overlooked. However…

The best quality in a top-tier athlete is presence. With Correa, you aren’t guaranteed that. Correa’s defense will be significantly better. But Devers’ health and relative youth mean that Devers’ deal will work out better.

Final Verdict:

Rafael Devers’ contract extension, while hefty, is the best move the Red Sox could’ve made at this moment. The Red Sox will get to enjoy the prime of one of the league’s best hitters. They’ll also get themselves a great piece to build a team around. It may be sad for Red Sox fans that they’ll close themselves off to needle-moving free agents like Shohei Ohtani. And they’ll have to deal with mediocre-at-best defense for the rest of his run. But ultimately, this deal is not an overpay.

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