After the post-winter meetings signings wave, MLB free agency moves slowly. However, these last two weeks have surprisingly brought a number of impact moves. Impact moves that’ll, of course, have a significant impact on the calculus of fantasy baseball drafts. Here’s what to make of recent MLB free agency moves:
Carlos Correa to the New York Mets?
After a physical fell through with the San Francisco Giants, the New York Mets and owner Steve Cohen swooped in to pick up the superstar shortstop(wrote a bit about that, and the larger issues that Steve Cohen’s style of ownership brings to the MLB). The signing is interesting for a number of reasons, but the fantasy baseball impact of this move is especially interesting.
Correa’s fantasy baseball reputation took a slight hit in 2022 as he wasn’t the force he was in Houston. There was a significant decline in RBI and runs numbers – two statistics that are more environment-driven. With a somewhat mediocre supporting cast in Minnesota and maintenance of his peripherals, Correa’s decline can be attributed to being in Minnesota. He moves into what could be an all-time great offense in New York – one that may rival the Astros’ legendary offenses in the late 2010s. Look for Correa in your fantasy baseball drafts, irrespective of format.
Carlos Rodon to the New York Yankees
The Yankees finally made their big out-of-house free agency signing in starter Carlos Rodon. Rodon joins one of the most fearsome rotations we’ve seen in a while, joining Nestor Cortes Jr., Gerrit Cole, Frankie Montas, and Luis Severino. When healthy, Rodon is one of the best pitchers in the league. Rodon is in the 90th percentile for xBA, xWOBA, K%, and xERA. Rodon will be expensive, and there’s no guarantee that he makes it past 150 innings pitched, but Rodon has the potential to be one of the most productive pitchers in fantasy baseball next season.
Dansby Swanson to the Chicago Cubs
To the surprise of no one, Dansby Swanson signed a megadeal with the Chicago Cubs. Swanson is an incredible defender, and his presence at shortstop for the Cubs should boost the numbers of the Cubs’ pitching staff. But Swanson is a fantasy baseball trap. Swanson may go early in drafts next year as a result of a stellar 2021 season and his big new contract with the Cubs, but I’d avoid falling for his tricks. Swanson is a mostly mediocre hitter who strikes out far too much. His only appeal was that his spot in the Atlanta Braves’ lineup guaranteed easy RBI opportunities. Now that he’s in a more dysfunctional offense in Chicago, Swanson will regress statistically.
Daulton Varsho to Blue Jays/Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Gabriel Moreno to Diamondbacks
Varsho was one of the best defenders in the league this past season in Arizona but he was unproductive on the offensive end. Varsho may have hit 27 homers, but his low-.200s BA should scare you. His eligibility at catcher is going to make him an attractive option in the later rounds, but I’d opt for a more talented option at catcher (think Realmuto, Rutschmann, or Contreras).
Now to the other side of things. Gurriel Jr. has been a solid hitter through his four years in Toronto, but there is little expectation that he turns things up a notch. Chase Field will boost his homer numbers a bit, but not enough for Gurriel to be considered an especially interesting fantasy baseball pick. The more important name on the Diamondbacks’ side is catcher Gabriel Moreno. The top prospect put up a .319 batting average in 26 games in the majors. With a position that is mostly devoid of elite hitting talent, I would reach for Moreno in drafts when the time comes.
Joey Gallo to the Minnesota Twins
After a disastrous 2022 season, Gallo should benefit from his move to the Minnesota Twins. Gallo should exclusively be drafted in rotisserie leagues as, even at his best, Gallo is a poor contact hitter. Hopefully, his being in a more low-key environment in Minnesota should help his mental health and let him return to the slugger he was in Texas.
Andrew Benintendi to the Chicago White Sox
After a career rejuvenation in Kansas City, Andrew Benintendi signed a 5-year/$75 million deal for the Chicago White Sox. In 2022, Benintendi slashed .304/.373/.399 in a season split between Kansas City and New York. Maybe the newfound job security causes some regression, but I’d bet that Benintendi continues to be a solid fantasy baseball option.
JD Martinez to the Los Angeles Dodgers
JD Martinez’s acclaimed run in Boston has ended as the DH moves to the other coast. Martinez struggled in the second half of the 2022 season with a relatively low OPS of .701, but that can be credited to apathy and locker room dysfunction after the Red Sox traded away fan-favorite Christian Vazquez. Martinez is getting older, but he should still be an above-average hitter in 2023.
Justin Turner to the Boston Red Sox
Justin Turner will essentially swap roles with JD Martinez as the Dodgers icon will make his way to Beantown. Turner was a great hitter in 2022, keeping his high walk and low K rates in a year that saw him get ever-so-close to the .800 OPS mark. Turner will get regular playing time, his swing will play well in Fenway, and he’ll still hit at least .275 in 2023. If he’s available in the later rounds, why not Justin Turner?
Brandon Drury to the Los Angeles Angels
The super-utility man got himself an unexpected piece of hardware this past season as his early season run in Cincinnati was good enough to get him the silver slugger. Drury had a 128 OPS+ in Cincinnati and a 109 OPS+ once traded to San Diego, so he’s, at his worst, a slightly above-average hitter. If the Angels are healthy and functional by the season’s start, I’d confidently draft Brandon Drury at his ADP.
Michael Conforto to the San Francisco Giants
A season-ending shoulder injury prevented Conforto from signing anywhere in the 2021 free-agency period. Conforto will join Mike Yazstremski, Joc Pederson, and Mitch Haniger in the Giants’ outfield rotation. After a string of elite offensive seasons, Conforto was dead-average offensively in his last season (100 OPS+). Despite that relative dud of a season, Conforto has enough of a track record to assume he’ll be productive on the offensive side in 2023. Take a risk and pick up Conforto in the later rounds next year.
Nathan Eovaldi to the Texas Rangers
The former Red Sox starter is only a year removed from a top-4 Cy Young finish. He may have fallen back to earth in 2022, as his FIP ballooned to 4.30 and his fastball lost a full MPH. The peripheral signs for Eovaldi don’t look incredible, but he’s still got elite walk rates and a less intense role as a #3 starter in Texas. I wouldn’t target Eovaldi but I wouldn’t be mad if I was forced by circumstance to draft him in 2023.
Corey Kluber to the Boston Red Sox
The former Cy Young award winner will enter an overcrowded, yet beleaguered pitching corps. Kluber still has walk rates and chase rates in the 90th percentile, so there’s no question that he’ll be a productive pitcher in Boston. He’s a solid #4 starter, but I’d imagine he teeters on-and-off fantasy rosters in most leagues as the season goes along.
Rich Hill to the Pittsburgh Pirates
A man known by many nicknames, Rich Hill will spend his age-43 season with the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates after signing an $8 million deal in free agency. With the Red Sox in 2022, Hill made 26 starts with an ERA of 4.27 in 120 innings. Rich Hill will start his fair share of games for the Pirates, and his 88 mph fastball may even get him a couple of whiffs. But, Rich Hill is not a relevant fantasy baseball starter and probably won’t be for the rest of his career.
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