Fantasy Baseball Radar: Early MLB Offseason

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If you didn’t know, MLB free agency is already in full swing. The MLB has work to do on the marketing of free agency, but let me not get off track here; some big moves have been made, and they may come into play in the upcoming fantasy baseball year. Any good fantasy baseball player should watch out for under-the-radar signings during this period in case any of those players could make an impact. I’ve compiled some names to look out for:

Jeimer Candelario to the Nationals

Coming off of an abysmal 80 WRC+ and -6 OAA season with the struggling Tigers, Jeimer Candelario’s free agency options were limited, but he has found a new home in Washington. Candelario agreed to a one-year $5 million prove-it deal with the Washington Nationals. Candelario went late in 2021 fantasy drafts with an ADP in the 200s. The hope was that the Tigers’ 2021 free agency spending spree would have Candelario improving on a 3.9 WAR 2021 season. But much like the rest of the Tigers’ roster, Candelario underwhelmed and put up a negative WAR. In what’s likely to be an even more dysfunctional offensive in Washington, it’d be best to avoid Candelario when draft day comes around.

Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners/Erik Swanson to the Blue Jays

Teoscar Hernandez gives the Mariners an all-star-level outfielder to set next to budding superstar Julio Rodriguez. Fantasy-wise, it’s a horizontal move for Teoscar and likely won’t change his fantasy profile significantly. What’s more interesting is the new logjam in the Mariners’ outfield. Dylan Moore and Jesse Winker are talented hitters, and one (or both) will likely head to the DH position. It’s unknown where Jesse Winker or Dylan Moore are playing but if one is named the DH before the season, I’d give them a chance with your last few picks.

For the Blue jays, it was not a move they wanted to make, but it was a move they needed to make to shore up their abysmal bullpen and farm pitching depth. Erik Swanson is coming off a 1.68 ERA season, pitching behind Paul Sewald in a setup position. Swanson will pitch in the setup behind Jordan Romano for however long his Blue Jays run lasts. I suggest keeping an eye on Swanson but don’t go so far as to draft him.

Jose Abreu to the Astros

The former MVP took a 3-year $60 mil deal from the defending champion Astros. Many are cursing the Astros and owner (and acting GM) Jeff Luhnow for overpaying Abreu, but I think this deal plays out better than one would think.

While Abreu’s start to the season was much-maligned, his 2022 season was still stellar. Abreu finished in the 95th percentile for EV, xBA, xSLG, xWOBA, and Hard Hit %. Sure, the power is down (only 15 HRs), but Jose Abreu’s hit tool hasn’t fallen off a cliff at age 36.

Abreu will slide into Yuli Gurriel’s 6-spot first-base role with the Astros. In a lineup that’ll lead off with Altuve-Pena-Alvarez-Bregman-Tucker-Abreu, expect the Astros to be a true offensive force in 2023. So, expect guys like Abreu, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Jeremy Pena to overperform their fantasy baseball ADPs in 2023.

Mike Clevinger to the White Sox

The White Sox signed former Cleveland and San Diego starter Mike Clevinger to a 1-year/$8 mil deal. Clevinger returned from a Tommy John with 22 games of 4.00 ERA baseball. A White Sox defense that ranked 26th in the league this past season will be laughably atrocious in 2023 with Andrew Vaughn – statistically, the worst defender in the majors – set to replace Jose Abreu. If you are a big Mike Clevinger fan (although those don’t exist) who was hoping for a bounce-back, please temper your expectations.

Ji-Man Choi to Pirates

Fan-favorite first baseman Ji-Man Choi was shipped from Tampa to Pittsburgh in one of many moves Pirates GM Ben Cherington has made to beef up one of the weaker spots in this Pirates lineup. Ji-Man Choi is, by all metrics, a serviceable first baseman and above-average hitter. Choi has never wowed, and production is on its way down, but Choi is always good for some early-season fantasy production.

Carlos Santana to the Pirates

Carlos Santana was the other first baseman who moved to the Pirates in the early offseason. It’ll be interesting to see how the time-share at first base works out, but Santana is bound for a bounce-back year. Santana’s 50-point difference between xBA and BA made him one of the year’s biggest statistical anomalies, and with the shift now banned, nearly every baseball mind on the planet is projecting a Santana bounceback. Have Santana at the top of your list for hitters to look out for in fantasy.

Tyler Anderson to Angels

Tyler Anderson successfully performed pitching rehab in the Dodgers’ famed pitching lab and heads to the crosstown Angels on a 3-year/$39 mil deal. While I predicted him returning to the Dodgers in an older article, Anderson to the Angels is close enough. I wouldn’t be all too excited about this season. There’s likely a mean-to-the-regression from his 2.57 ERA next season and the Angels never seem to find luck on these kinds of signings anyways. I would put Anderson on my “DO NOT DRAFT” list, but, of course, don’t rule him out completely.

Gio Urshela to Angels

Since the 2019 season, Gio Urshela has been one of baseball’s most underrated players. Now that’s not to say he’s a star, but 3 seasons with an OPS+ >120 is quite a feat. Gio Urshela is always going to be a reliable fantasy 3rd baseman. Urshela is one of my favorite mid-to-late-round picks for next year’s fantasy baseball season.

Hunter Renfroe to Angels:

By the end of it, Perry Minasian’s most impactful move in his busy free agency may prove to be the Renfroe signing. Renfroe was instrumental in the Red Sox’s 2021 ALCS run, with 31 HRs in 144 games. Renfroe gives the Angels a solid starting outfielder. It may be his third team in 3 years, but Renfroe can be a serious fantasy contributor.