MLB 2022 Free Agency Pitchers Deal Predictions

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The MLB offseason is underway. While many are still hungover on the MLB postseason, it’s time to focus on the stacked pitcher class in this year’s free agency.

Jacob deGrom

Jacob deGrom’s heavy price tag and injury history make him one of the more dangerous commodities available, but that shouldn’t scare many teams off. In 64 innings, the super-ace posted a 2.13 FIP with a K rate in the 100th percentile. Someone is going to bring out the brinks truck for deGrom – likely in the $38-40 mil AAV range – but who? The early contenders are the Phillies, Braves, and Rangers, but the Mets should still be frontrunners. Steve Cohen will pay the Steve Cohen tax this offseason, and it’s a deGrom contract that will put Cohen in that territory this free agency. But, you gotta pay to win if you are the New York Mets.

Expect deGrom to stick with the Mets for the near future.

Carlos Rodon

After a stellar 2022 season (league-leading 2.25 FIP), Carlos Rodon will likely look for a long-term contract in the $25-30 mil AAV range.

Who’s got room for Rodon?

The Giants would like to see him back, but the team is still stuck in a contention purgatory that doesn’t make a Rodon contract viable. You’ve always got to factor in teams like the Yankees and Red Sox, but Rodon isn’t flashy enough of a signing for either team to have him as their top option. The Rangers and Cardinals need reliable pitching and will likely end up being the final contenders for Rodon. The Cardinals are closer to contending and are more in need of top-end talent so put your stock on Rodon to the Cardinals.

Justin Verlander

The future-HOFer is entering his age-40 season, but as indicated by his Cy-Young-worthy 2022 season, he’s still dealing. It’s no question that Verlander returns to the world-champion Astros for the 2023 season. Showing no signs of slowing down or any indication of retiring anytime soon, expect a Tom Brady-esque deal of $80 mil for two years.

Clayton Kershaw

The other future-HOFer is a bit younger than Verlander at age 34, but Kershaw actually has fewer miles left in the tank. Kershaw is all but penciled in to stay with the Dodgers, but on a far less lucrative deal than Verlander. Playing in 22 games, Kershaw put up a 184 ERA+ for the mighty Dodgers. Kershaw would be happy with a 1 year deal for $20 mil from the Dodgers.

Chris Bassitt

Chris Bassitt has long been the model of consistency. In need of a quality start? Look no further than Chris Bassitt. There are plenty of teams that are in dire need of plug-and-play starters, including, but not limited to Red Sox, Rangers, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Mets. Practically, every team wants a Bassitt, and could probably afford a Bassitt if they tried hard enough.

You could take a blind spin of the wheel, pick a random team, and still have about as educated a guess as baseball journalism’s most inside insider. Let’s just pick the Orioles on a modest 4-year deal for Bassitt this free agency.

Tyler Anderson

Anderson rehabbed his entire career this season for the Dodgers. In a season plagued by injuries, Anderson became one of the Dodgers’ best pitchers and was a large part of their 112-win effort. Look for the Dodgers to reward Anderson and resign him to a 3-year deal for about $50 mil in totality.

Zach Eflin

The Phillies’ starter-reliever turned in an impressive postseason run. Eflin’s stretch from Game 1 of the NLDS saw him turn in 6 hits in 6 innings of relief and was a big part of the Phillies’ postseason success. Eflin might have trouble finding an initial suitor in such a top-heavy pitching market, but after turning down a mutual option worth $15 million, look for Eflin to chase a bag from a team like the Rangers.

Nathan Eovaldi

After a top 4 Cy Young finish in the 2021 season, Eovaldi faced a serious regression to the mean in a tough 4.3 FIP season for the 2022 Red Sox. A qualifying offer from the Red Sox is possible, but I wouldn’t put my money it. Look for a team like the Angels to take a gamble on Eovaldi.

Jameson Taillon

Apparently, Cashman will not be offering Taillon the qualifying offer. After two straight dead-average seasons (exactly 100 ERA+), Taillon’s appearance on this list shows how top-heavy this class really is. Taillon’s market may be less-than-appealing, but he could rebound as a mid-level starter on a team like the Angels.

See predictions for the Platinum Glove award here