The Suitors of Juan Soto: Where Will He Go?

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The baseball world was shaken this past weekend by rumors that the Washington Nationals could look to trade superstar Juan Soto after he rejected a 15-year $440 million offer. Of course, nearly every baseball fan threw out outlandish trade offers that would be able to get Soto to their team.

In reality, very few teams can reasonably acquire a supernova talent like Juan Soto. To the chagrin of their fans, most MLB teams don’t have the motive or resources to trade for Soto. Much like the suitors of Penelope in Homer’s Odyssey, there are plenty of suitors but only a few serious candidates. I’ll delve into the likelihood that your team is able to get Juan Soto.

Bottomfeeders

You can quickly cross off most teams because they simply aren’t good enough at this moment to justify depleting their farm system for Juan Soto. Any team that isn’t close to .500 will have a hard time justifying a trade for Juan Soto.

Athletics (0%)

Reds (0%)

Cubs (0%)

Royals (0%)

Tigers (0%)

Pirates (0%)

Diamondbacks (0%)

Rockies (0%)

Barren Farms

For the Nationals to consider a trade offer, they are at least going to have to receive three top-100 prospects. Additionally, the team isn’t looking to contend in the near future so most of the prospects they receive ideally shouldn’t have already tasted the league. This makes it near impossible for the Angels, Astros, Twins, White Sox and Rays to pick up Soto.

Angels (1%) (they wouldn’t break 80 wins anyways)

Astros (1%)

Twins (1%)

White Sox (1%)

No In-division trade

Another obvious here is that the Nationals are not going to trade Juan Soto to a team within the NL East. It will be painful for the Nationals to see Juan Soto go but that pain will only increase tenfold if they deal him to a team within their division. While the Mets have the resources and the motive to pick up Soto, an in-division trade of this magnitude would rival Frazee sending Babe Ruth to the Yankees in 1920.

With the Nationals not even looking to consider an in-division trade of 2 months of Max Scherzer in 2021, don’t expect to see Juan Soto go to the Phillies, Braves, Marlins, or Mets (sorry Starling Marte).

Starling Marte is an All-Star in convincing Juan Soto to come to Queens

https://twitter.com/NateMendelson/status/1549199128458104832?s=20&t=qTUXeLXp4_ZTKu2V6vdn6A

— MetsFanMania (@MetsFanMania) July 19, 2022

Marlins (5%)

Phillies (5%)

Braves (5%)

Mets (5%)

I would like to mention that the Mets are the Antinous of this story. They are by far the cockiest in their pursuit of Juan Soto when they are likely going to be the first true suitor to be killed by Odysseus. Of course, I don’t think Rizzo goes that far but a temporarily blocking of Billy Eppler’s phone number would serve the same purpose.

Small Markets

The teams under this category have the prospects to pick up Soto, but they lack the market and the checkbook to retain Soto. Additionally, most of these teams aren’t a Juan Soto away from winning the World Series. These teams are moving in the right direction and shouldn’t stray from that direction to bring in Soto.

Guardians (8%)

Orioles (10%)

Rays (12%)

Brewers (15%)

Ownership Hates Their Fans

The forever impatient fans in Beantown, LA, and the Bronx are obviously itching for the opportunity to pick up a generational talent like Juan Soto. I hate to burst their bubbles, but it’s probably not happening.

Boston (20%)

Already trapped in tense contract negotiations with franchise stars Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, the last thing the Red Sox front office should be looking for is another superstar contract. Both owner John Henry and general manager Chaim Bloom have consistently shown that they don’t want to inflate the Red Sox payroll. Don’t expect Chaim to part with guys like Marcelo Mayer, Brayan Bello, Triston Casas, and Nick Yorke for Juan Soto.

Red Sox fans after Bloom gives up Casas, Bello, Mayer, Yorke, Duran, Downs and Winckowski for Juan Soto:

Red Sox fans after Bloom gives up Casas, Bello, Mayer, Yorke, Duran, Downs and Winckowski for Juan Soto: pic.twitter.com/64YfmIimRN

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) July 16, 2022

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) July 16, 2022

Yankees (25%)

For the Yankees, the roadblock in a Soto deal is the $250 mil payroll. Mind you, that payroll is going to balloon to at least 270 million when they are forced to pay up MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge. They won’t be able to absorb the contract of Patrick Corbin while also having to give a contract to Juan Soto that will surely exceed $35 mil AAV/10-15 years. I know Hal Steinbrenner loves this team, but he can’t get Soto without losing significant depth and valuable prospects. I doubt they’d need more than Luis Castillo to win the world series anyways.

Dodgers (30%)

The Dodgers seem to make this kind of trade every year, but this one seems implausible. The Dodgers have the biggest payroll in the league, and that’s without having to pay Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson, and various depth pieces. A Juan Soto will surely compromise the Dodgers’ depth, but it’ll get the organization much closer to an actual ring.

(The 2020 MLB season was a case of large-scale collective psychosis and its results have zero historical legitimacy)

They Shouldn’t Do It, but They’ll Definitely Try

Rangers (35%)

MLB insider Jon Heyman has the Rangers listed as their favorites to pick up Juan Soto, but it doesn’t seem like the right decision.

Their stacked farm system is filled with guys that will be ready to contribute by next year. Their top prospects Jack Leiter, Josh Jung, Cole Winn, and Owen White all fit huge holes in their pitching staff/bullpen and in their infield. The Rangers already have $500 million tied up in Seager and Semien; they aren’t in the spot to spend another $500 million.

The blueprint of spending on big guys at the cost of depth has clearly not worked in Anaheim, and it won’t work in Arlington either.

Padres (40%)

AJ Preller is a madman. I don’t know how he’s going to absorb Patrick Corbin with big contracts already on board, but if there was somebody who would it’s Preller.

Giants (50%)

Farhan Zaidi’s accomplishments in San Francisco become doubly impressive when you realize that the Giants have just an average payroll. Still, the Giants sit at 3rd in the NL West with no surefire way to get ahead of the behemoths that the Dodgers and Padres have built. The Giants would have to completely deplete their farm system, but it’s likely the only way that the Giants can push ahead in the NL West.

The 3 Main Suitors

While it was fun to assign random percentages to the teams that are likely not going to pick up Juan Soto, there are only three main suitors. Each three of these teams can give varying levels of prospect support, from proven talent to high-ceiling young prospects.

Blue Jays (65%)

The Blue Jays can pick up Soto. They don’t have significant salary commitments and definitely have the prospects to get it done. The Blue Jays are one of few teams that can part with their top prospects and not have to shed a single tear. The problem that arises is that Toronto would have to resign practically all of their stars at the same time. Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alek Manoah, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are all slated to command massive salaries when they hit arbitration/free agency in the next few years. It’d be a fun few years in Toronto before all hell breaks loose.

Mariners (75%)

The Mariners clearly have a superstar in Julio Rodriguez. They also hold all-star level talents in Ty France and Robbie Ray. They have solid pieces throughout the diamond in JP Crawford, Jesse Winker, and Adam Frazier. That’s a great team, but great teams aren’t enough to guarantee a world series. A second superstar in Juan Soto makes the Mariners a dynastic level team. The Mariners should deal prospects like Noelvi Marte, Harry Ford, and Lazaro Montes in a heartbeat for Juan Soto.

Cardinals (75%)

The Cardinals may have the best timeline in the league in terms of fitting in Juan Soto. They have two aging superstars in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Flanking those two are a bevy of young elite defensive talents like Tommy Edman and Harrison Bader. What they lack is a marketable superstar like Soto. Juan Soto gives the Cardinals the opportunity to lock up a talent that they haven’t seen since Albert Pujols. While I’d like for the Cardinals to invest in pitching talent, they can always try to just outswing their opponents

All For Naught

Nationals (90%)

Ultimately, Soto might not be moved this deadline, or even in the winter; he may not even be dealt at all. It’s genuinely impossible for the Nationals to get a fair return for a generational talent like Juan Soto. The speculation is fun but it doesn’t seem like anything more than speculation. They’ll be better off keeping him and loading up their farm system off of Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz trade. At the end of the day, Odysseus comes back to kill all the suitors and everyone lives happily ever after (except all the suitors Odysseus executed shortly after returning).

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