Beating Vegas: Give Thanks, Make Money

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Houston Texans +7 at Baltimore Ravens

We’re going to kick off this week’s NFL edition of Beating Vegas by telling you to ignore the line of seven points and take a look at the points total number which is 38. Nobody would blame you for not wanting to view this Monday Night Football match-up. The Houston Texans without DeShawn Watson at quarterback are pretty unwatchable and the Ravens have the leagues second worst offense in the NFL. The Ravens deserve some kind of award for having Joe Flacco under center for the last three years and acting as if he is something special. Flacco is one of the most underwhelming quarterbacks in the NFL and it’s been that way for a while. . . Running back Alex Collins has been a welcomed surprise, averaging five yards a rush and being the teams one true source of consistency on offense. Collins will have a tough challenge going up against a Texans defense that holds runners to an average of 3.7 yards a rush. Last week this defense held the Cardinals’ Adrian Peterson to 26 yards on fourteen carries. Yet, this Baltimore team is hard to gauge; this defense has “pitched” three shutouts but also lost 44-17 to the Jags, 26-9 to the Steelers and actually figured out a way to lose to the Chicago Bears 27-24. Baltimore will most likely win this game because they will be at home and the Texans are still putting Tom Savage out there to play quarterback. . . who is probably one of the three starting quarterbacks worse than Joe Flacco.

The Pick: The Under at 38

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Detroit Lions

Thanksgiving Day always gives us the Lions and the Cowboys. The world always understands the Cowboys – but why – oh why, the Lions? Why won’t the football gods let us enjoy our festive day filled with family and food by viewing a team that the world can at least pretend to care about? The Lions are currently riding a three-game win streak and are at least beating the teams they are supposed to beat during this streak. The Lions do one thing, but at least they do it pretty well – pass the ball. The receiving core (which was mentioned on Beating Vegas last week) is a dangerous one that averages 12 yards a catch. But being a one-dimensional team against a defense like the Vikings is a recipe for disaster. The Vikings are currently in the top five for total offense and total defense, but it’s their defense that has become their calling card. Last week, the Vikings defense put the clamps on the league’s number one offense, the L.A. Rams. As much as people want to push quarterback Case Keenum out for Teddy Bridgewater; the Vikings can’t and more importantly – they shouldn’t. Keenum has gelled well with his wide-outs, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs and is doing it with a completion percentage of 65% and averaging over 240 passing yards a game. Last time these two teams played, the Lions won 14-7 in a boring game which was evidence, both teams were working out the “kinks.” Minnesota by 10 is more than realistic.

The Pick: Vikings -3

Denver Broncos +5 at Oakland Raiders

The Raiders enter this week with a new defensive coordinator, John Pagano and the Broncos enter this week with a new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave. Obviously, this is proof that both organizations are disappointed with themselves, and they should be. Last week, we were all over the Patriots destroying the Raiders (your welcome), but this week they go up against an offense that is putrid. The Raiders pass defense might get a break after getting scorched by Tom Brady last week because Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler’s 53% completion percentage isn’t enough to scare even a pee-wee-football team’s secondary. For as much as we are told that this Broncos defense is one of the best in the NFL, they are on a six-game losing streak and in this mess, the secondary has been toyed with. Because of the inefficiency of this offense – the defense is on the field a lot. The Raiders were just embarrassed on national television and are looking to gain some kind of redemption. This is a good week for a defensive coordinator to start his new job because it should be easy to prep against this Broncos offensive attack.

The Pick: Raiders -5

Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras