NCAAF

Beating Vegas: Wake Up, Gator Down

Utah State +13.5 at Wake Forest

Wake Forest has been a team I’ve picked on for the last few years.  And, why not? Outside of Tim Duncan, you’ll struggle to name a talent out of Wake Forest who has been athletically dominant.  Redshirt freshman wide out Greg Dortch may change that way of thinking though. In his first two games, Dortch has 10 catches for 111 yards and three touchdowns. For a Wake Forest team that has recently been known for having above average defense and below average offense, this is a player that helps tilt things in their favor. Wake is a team that will predominantly run the ball with their quarterback Kendall Hinton and their running backs Cade Carney and John Wolford.  This ground game will pose the biggest problem for Utah State, who’s secondary might be looking forward to the challenge of covering Dortch, but their defensive line will get pummeled by Wake’s offensive front.  Even though they beat up on cup-cake Idaho State, they still gave up 100 yards on the ground to tailback Ty Flanagan, and although Wisconsin is “next-level-good” they couldn’t do much to stop the ground attack or  the passing attack led by Alex Hornibrook, who nearly everyone has questions about as QB of the Badgers.  It may seem like a lot of points but Utah State won’t be able to move the ball against a Demon Deacons squad that has a pretty impressive defense and an improved offense.

The Pick: Wake Forest -13.5

 

Appalachian State -23 at Texas State

Twenty-three points is a big number.  Although we did pick UCLA last week and we saw them easily cover that number in a rout of Hawaii, so who knows. . . App State and Texas State have played a similar schedule: Both lost to a good school from a power-five conference and both won against their scheduled “cup-cake” opponents.  The only difference is, App State dismantled Savannah State 54-7 while Texas State limped passed Houston Baptist 20-11.  The stats between Baptist and Texas were pretty similar, Baptist just didn’t have what it took to finish drives.  Appalachian State knows how to finish drives and put opponents away.  Last year they won this match up 35-10 and with not much improvement coming on the side of Texas State offensively or defensively in the last year, it’s easy to see where this one is going. . . Last season this Texas State defense was terrible against the run allowing 4.9 yards a rush and allowing 2663 yards on the ground.  Expect App State to take advantage of this and watch as the highly accurate quarterback Taylor Lamb has all day in the pocket.

The Pick: Appalachian State -23

Tennessee +4.5 at Florida

This line opened at eight points and has been plummeting ever since.  Does that mean something?  Yes, one of two things.  1) Bookmakers just want even betting on the side so they are begging people to take Florida OR 2) Bookmakers realized something that the majority of the nation refuses to believe: Florida is just not that good.  It’s true.  Sorry folks, no more Urban Meyer, Tim Tebow – hell, I’m sure people are still wishing Percy Harvin will suit up for the Gators – nope, not happening.  The Gators have been able to recruit great athletes on the defensive side of the ball but have been stagnant on offense for – forever it seems. The addition of former Notre Dame quarterback Malik Zaire proved to be in vain as he struggled to throw over 100 yards against Michigan. Tennessee beat the Gators last season, although they DID have Dobbs at quarterback, but this team is already 2-0 and showing no signs of slowing down offensively.  It would’ve been better to get them at eight, but the Vols are just the better team, familiar with this enemy territory and should pull off the victory outright.

The Pick: Tennessee +4.5

Four Game Teaser of the Week: Boise State -2, UConn +22, Oklahoma State -1.5 and Wake Forest -1.

 

Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras

Twitter @GeeSteelio

 

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