NCAAF

Beating Vegas: Oregon’s Gettin’ Corny

Buffalo +16.5 at Army

Last week Buffalo lost to Minnesota in what was probably the most boring game of the week, with a final score of 17-7.  The Bulls just could not push forward against Minnesota in the trenches and it showed. Army is one of those one-dimensional teams who’s one dimension is legit, but after getting punched in the mouth a few times last week, Buffalo should be up to the challenge.  The Bulls have legit talent on their defense such as middle linebacker Khalil Hodge and safety Ryan Williamson.  Last week Buffalo didn’t know what to expect from the Gophers quarterback, and it was too late to realize they should’ve just stacked eight-in-the-box.  This week they know Army will toss the ball maybe 4 times all game and they have the athletes to go up against this triple-option attack.  Last season Buffalo won this matchup against Army at home by 3 points, so the +16.5 looks beyond fishy.   I love salmon myself.

The Pick: Buffalo +16.5

 

 

Nebraska +14 at Oregon

Early in the season, Vegas likes to put lines up to fool the public because there really isn’t much to go on but the optics.  Oregon went out of the real college football world to beat up on FCS opponent Southern Utah to the ring of 77-21.  “Vanilla-Optics” folks see this as a return of the dominant Oregon teams we’ve been used to seeing in recent memory.  Keeping that in mind, Nebraska went out and had a high scoring nail-biter against the FBS bred  Arkansas State.   Seems like a “bad-win” for those that don’t know Arkansas State but this a team that won 8 games last year and is used to testing themselves early in the season (last year lost to Auburn in week two).  On paper Nebraska is just plain bigger on the offensive side of the ball when compared to Oregon defensive front and Nebraska’s 3-4 defensive scheme enhances the play of their talented linebackers Weber and Young – but the way to beat Oregon (and it always has been the way to beat Oregon) is by attacking them up the middle.  Nebraska nose-tackle Mick Stoltenberg is a beast in the making and should put pressure on the Ducks early.  Even if the Ducks score early and quick, the Cornhuskers will wear down and frustrate Oregon for the length of this game.  14 is just way too many points.

The Pick: Nebraska +14

Hawaii +23.5 at UCLA

Josh Rosen might’ve had the game we’ve all been waiting for him to have last week as the young man’s confidence matched his play.  Rosen led UCLA to a remarkable fourth quarter comeback against Texas A&M where he threw 4 touchdown passes to beat A&M 45-44.  Sure, we at “Beating Vegas” took the “L” against the spread but we like UCLA this year and it’s because of games like these. . .Hawaii has been busy this season with already 2 games (and with that 2 wins) under their belts.  Sure the wins come against UMass and Western Carolina but hey – you play the games that are on your schedule.  This week though, UCLA’s defense will prove to be too much – more so the UCLA secondary.  UCLA’s defensive front should have their way with Hawaii’s offensive line as well.  Rosen will continue to ride high after this win as well.

The Pick: UCLA -23.5

Four Game Teaser of the Week (ALL NFL): Rams +8; Cardinals +10.5, Chargers +15.5 and the over in the Titans/Raiders game at 38.5

Only If You Must: Sometimes you pick games because of  a “feeling.”  This week N’Western as a road favorite over Duke just seems like it’ll happen.  27-20 final score.  N’western has been recruiting great athletes the last few years and are the better-coached team. Just do it: N’western -3.

Good Luck and Wager Wisely!

G.W. Gras

twitter @GeeSteelio

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